IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe

  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri
  • Christophe Rault

The aim of this paper is to investigate the existence of long-run relationships between oil prices and stock markets in Gulf Corporation Countries (gcc) using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (sur) methods. Since gcc countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets are likely to be susceptible to oil price shocks. Using a monthly dataset covering the period January 1996 to December 2007, our investigation shows that there is evidence for cointegration of oil prices and stock markets in gcc countries, while the sur results indicate that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices, except in Saudi Arabia. Classification JEL : G12, F3, Q43

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=RECO_615_0945
Download Restriction: free

File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique-2010-5-page-945.htm
Download Restriction: free

Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 61 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 945-959

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_615_0945
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Julien Fouquau, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Post-Print hal-00822012, HAL.
  2. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
  3. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
  5. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  6. Chihwa Kao & Suzanne McCoskey, 1997. "A Residual-Based Test Of The Null Of Cointegration In Panel Data," Econometrics 9711002, EconWPA.
  7. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
  8. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  9. Sephton, Peter S., 1995. "Response surface estimates of the KPSS stationarity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 255-261, March.
  10. Simon Neaime, 2004. "Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 0431, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2004.
  11. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
  12. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri, 2006. "La prime de risque dans un cadre international : le risque de change est-il apprécié ?," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 27(1), pages 131-170.
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  14. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2007. "Characteristics of permanent and transitory returns in oil-sensitive emerging stock markets: The case of GCC countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 231-245, July.
  15. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," Discussion Papers 11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  16. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  17. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
  18. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  19. Christian Gengenbach & Franz C. Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2006. "Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 683-719, December.
  20. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
  22. Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
  23. Hammoudeh, Shawkat M. & Yuan, Yuan & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Shock and volatility spillovers among equity sectors of the Gulf Arab stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 829-842, August.
  24. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Financial Sector Development in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/201, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2006. "Behavior of GCC stock markets and impacts of US oil and financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 22-44, March.
  26. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
  27. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
  29. Assaf Ata, 2003. "Transmission of Stock Price Movements: The Case of GCC Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 73-92, August.
  30. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2008. "Sudden changes in volatility in emerging markets: The case of Gulf Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 47-63.
  31. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
  32. Osamah Al-Khazali & Ali Darrat & Mohsen Saad, 2006. "Intra-regional integration of the GCC stock markets: the role of market liberalization," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1265-1272.
  33. Heiko Hesse & Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Oil Prices and Bank Profitability; Evidence From Major Oil-Exporting Countries in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Working Papers 09/220, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2005:12, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  35. Peter Baláž & Andrej Londarev, 2006. "Oil and its position in the process of globalization of the world economy," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 508-528.
  36. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
  37. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Babatunde Olatunji Odusami, 2009. "Crude oil shocks and stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 291-303.
  39. Aloui, Chaker & Jammazi, Rania, 2009. "The effects of crude oil shocks on stock market shifts behaviour: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 789-799, September.
  40. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  41. Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
  42. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2008. "What drives short-term GCC stock market returns? Empirical evidence from fat-tailed distribution," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 17-25.
  43. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_615_0945. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.