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Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money

  • Westerlund, Joakim

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Lund University)

  • Costantini, Mauro

    ()

    (Department of Public Economics)

Most econometric methods for testing the proposition of long-run monetary neutrality rely on the assumption that money and real output do not cointegrate, a result that is usually supported by the data. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that a violation of the noncointegration assumption is likely to result in a nonrejection of the neutrality proposition. To alleviate this problem, two new and more powerful panel cointegration tests are proposed that can be used under very general conditions. The tests are then applied to a panel covering 10 countries between 1870 and 1986. The results suggest money and real output are cointegrated, and that the neutrality proposition therefore must be rejected.

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Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006:18.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 09 Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as Westerlund, Joakim and Mauro Costantini, 'Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money' in Empirical Economics, 2009, pages 1-26.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2006_018
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en

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  1. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  3. Evans, P, 1996. "Growth and the Neutrality of Money," ISER Discussion Paper 0398, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  4. Matei Demetrescu & Uwe Hassler & Adina-Ioana Tarcolea, 2006. "Combining Significance of Correlated Statistics with Application to Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 647-663, October.
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
  6. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  7. Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 209-228, February.
  8. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, 07.
  9. Westerlund, Joakim, 2005. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Working Papers 2005:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  10. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2006. "A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-216, March.
  11. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  12. Weber, Axel A, 1994. "Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 1042, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
  14. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
  15. Serletis, Apostolos & Koustas, Zisimos, 1998. "International Evidence on the Neutrality of Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 1-25, February.
  16. Crowder, William J, 1998. "The Long-Run Link between Money Growth and Inflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 229-43, April.
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