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Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal

Author

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  • Karanassou, Marika

    () (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Sala, Hector

    () (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Snower, Dennis J.

    () (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, in which unemployment movements are viewed as the outcome of the interplay between labor market shocks and prolonged lagged adjustment processes. We present an empirical analysis that distinguishes between unemployment movements arising from longrun equilibrium changes and those arising from lagged intertemporal adjustments. This analysis has far-reaching policy implications. Our analysis shows that the rise in EU unemployment over the 1970s and first part of the 1980s was due largely to permanent shocks (especially the rise in working-age population and the decline in capital formation), whereas the unemployment increase in the first part of the 1990s was due largely to temporary shocks (especially the fall in competitiveness and the rise in real interest rates).

Suggested Citation

  • Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2002. "Unemployment in the European Union: A Dynamic Reappraisal," IZA Discussion Papers 531, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp531
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December.
    2. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2006. "Unemployment, Growth, And Fiscal Policy: New Insights On The Hysteresis Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 285-316, June.
    3. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "Capital accumulation and unemployment: new insights on the Nordic experience," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(6), pages 977-1001, November.
    5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    6. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    7. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2012. "Factor shares, the price markup, and the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 181-198.
    8. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    9. Roberto Bande & Marika Karanassou, 2009. "Labour market flexibility and regional unemployment rate dynamics: Spain 1980-1995," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(1), pages 181-207, March.
    10. José Ramón García & Valeri Sorolla, 2014. "Monopolistic Competition and Different Wage Setting Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 48-77, February.
    11. Martin Leites & Sylvina Porras, 2013. "El enfoque de la Reacción en Cadena: una aplicación para explicar la dinámica del desempleo en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 13-11, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    12. Hofer, Helmut & Kunst, Robert M. & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang & Schuh, Ulrich & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Some Evidence on the Relevance of the Chain-reaction Theory in Selected Countries," Economics Series 207, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    13. Kromphardt, Jürgen & Logeay, Camille, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of Spanish Unemployment: A Chain Reaction Theory Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3712, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "Unemployment in the EU: Institutions, Prices and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2013. "Capital Investment and Equilibrium Unemployment," Economics wp61, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    wage determination; labor force participation; employment; labor market shocks; NAIRU; natural rate; unemployment; intertemporal adjustments; homogeneous dynamic panels; panel unit root tests;

    JEL classification:

    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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