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Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment

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  • Henry, Brian
  • Karanassou, Marika
  • Snower, Dennis J

Abstract

This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK employment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical natural rate of unemployment (NRU). Our analysis suggests that the UK NRU has remained reasonably stable through time and that the medium-run swings in unemployment are due, instead, to very prolonged after-effects of persistent (transitory but long-lasting) shocks. We argue that (i) past UK labour market shocks have prolonged after-effects on unemployment due to interactions among different lagged adjustment processes in the labour market; (ii) many of the important shocks that have hit the UK labour market over the past 25 years have been persistent; and (iii) the persistence of the shocks is complementary to the persistence of the lagged adjustment processes in generating movements of UK employment. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

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  • Henry, Brian & Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J, 2000. "Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 178-203, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:52:y:2000:i:1:p:178-203
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    Cited by:

    1. Cervini-Plá, María & Silva, José I. & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Labor disruption costs and real wages cyclicality," MPRA Paper 42366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis Snower, 2007. "The macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(3), pages 151-180, December.
    3. Raurich, Xavier & Sala, Hector & Sorolla, Valeri, 2006. "Unemployment, Growth, And Fiscal Policy: New Insights On The Hysteresis Hypothesis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 285-316.
    4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Marika Karanassou & Dennis J. Snower, 2004. "Unemployment Invariance," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(3), pages 297-317, August.
    6. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Thierry Warin, 2006. "From Full Employment to the Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Survey," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0601, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    9. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March.
    10. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala, 2010. "Labour Market Dynamics in Australia: What Drives Unemployment?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 185-209, June.
    11. Roberto Bande, 2002. "Ajustes Dinámicos en las Tasas de Paro: España vs. Portugal," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0020, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    12. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Long-run inflation-unemployment dynamics: The Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 279-300.
    13. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "Global Shocks and Unemployment Adjustment," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0401, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
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    15. Luis Gil-Alana, 2002. "Modelling the Persistence of Unemployment in Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 465-477.
    16. Albert van der Horst, 2003. "Structural Estimates of Equilibrium Unemployment in Six OECD Economies," Economics Working Papers 022, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    17. repec:ecr:col070:41257 is not listed on IDEAS
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    19. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2004. "Unemployment in the EU: Institutions, Prices and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 4243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Gil-Alaña, Luis A. & Henry, Brian, 2000. "Fractional integration and the dynamics of UK unemployment," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,14, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    21. Ali Choudhary & Paul Levine, 2004. "Can Risk Aversion in Firms Reduce Unemployment Persistence?," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0704, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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