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Les déterminants du chômage d'équilibre : estimation d'un modèle WS-PS

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  • Yannick L'Horty
  • Nicolas Sobczak

Abstract

[fre] Les déterminants du chômage d'équilibre : estimation d'un modèle WS-PS par Yannick L'Horty et Nicolas Sobczak . Cette étude propose une évaluation du chômage d'équilibre en France sur la base d'une estimation d'un modèle WS-PS sur données macro-économiques trimestrielles. Dans un premier temps on discute les déterminants théoriques du chômage d'équilibre dans le cadre d'un modèle de négociation salariale avec des spécifications très générales. L'estimation multivariée d'un modèle minimal permet ensuite de mettre en évidence deux relations de cointégration à partir desquelles on identifie les formes structurelles des équations de prix et de salaire. Le socle constitué par le modèle minimal permet enfin d'explorer le rôle de plusieurs variables susceptibles de concourir à la formation du chômage d'équilibre, telles que le coin fiscalo-social, les termes de l'échange, l'indemnisation du chômage, ou le mismatch. Les estimations univariées et multivariées d'un modèle enrichi font ainsi apparaître le rôle déterminant du coin salarial, du ralentissement des gains de productivité, et plus modestement des revenus de remplacement dans la montée du chômage d'équilibre en France. [eng] The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment: Estimating a WS-PS Model by Yannick L'Horty and Nicolas Sobczak . This study proposes an evaluation of equilibrium unemployment in France based on an estimation of a WS-PS model using quarterly macroeconomic data. First of all, the theoretical determinants of equilibrium unemployment are discussed in relation to a wage bargaining model with extremely general specifications. A multivariate estimation of a minimal model is then used to show two cointegration relations, from which the structural forms of the price and wage equations are identified. The minimal model is subsequently used as a basis to explore the role of a number of variables likely to contribute to the formation of equilibrium unemployment. Examples of these variables are the tax and social security contributions wedge, terms of trade, unemployment benefits and the mismatch. Univariate and multivariate estimates made using an enhanced model therefore reveal the determining role of the wage wedge, the slowdown in productivity gains and, to a lesser extent, replacement earnings in the rise in equilibrium unemployment in France.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick L'Horty & Nicolas Sobczak, 1997. "Les déterminants du chômage d'équilibre : estimation d'un modèle WS-PS," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 101-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_127_1_5839
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1997.5839
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5839
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. David Spector, 2001. "Emploi : une analyse critique des politiques malthusiennes," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 13-31.
    3. Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2000. "35 heures : réduction réduite," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 74(1), pages 53-95.
    4. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "Le taux de chômage d'équilibre. Discussion théorique et évaluation empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 205-244.
    5. L'Horty, Yannick & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High? An Estimation of the WS-PS Model," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, May.
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1646 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1646 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane & Xavier Timbeau, 2002. "Le modèle France de l'OFCE. La nouvelle version : e-mod.fr," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 81(2), pages 245-300.
    10. Eric Heyer & Hervé Le Bihan & Frédéric Lerais, 2000. "Relation de Phillips, boucle prix-salaire : une estimation par la méthode de Johansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 43-60.
    11. Laura Gérard-Prenveille, 2003. "Déterminants du taux de chômage d’équilibre et ajustements sur le marché du travail : une analyse sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 17-37.
    12. Olivier Bontout & Sébastien Jean, 1998. "Wages and Unemployment: Trade-off Under Different Labour Market Paradigms," Working Papers 1998-13, CEPII research center.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1631 is not listed on IDEAS

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