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Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis

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  • Xiaming Liu
  • Haiyan Song
  • Peter Romilly

Abstract

Established in December 1990 and July 1991 respectively, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are the only two official stock markets in China. This paper aims to test for randomness in each stock exchange share price index, and to examine the relationship between the two share price indexes. Statistical evidence shows that both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes can be best characterized as random walk processes and therefore the markets are efficient individually. However, the Engle-Granger two-stage cointegration analysis and the Johansen procedure suggest a long-run equilibrium relationship between the two stock prices, while the Granger causality test indicates a feedback relationship between the returns of the Shenzhen and Shanghai shares. These results imply that the stock markets are collectively inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:4:y:1997:i:8:p:511-515
    DOI: 10.1080/758536636
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    Cited by:

    1. João Paulo Vieito & Wing-Keung Wong & Zhen-Zhen Zhu, 2016. "Could the global financial crisis improve the performance of the G7 stocks markets?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(12), pages 1066-1080, March.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Yang-Cheng Lu, 2006. "Equity Diversification in Two Chinese Share Markets: Old Wine and New Bottle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(4), pages 1-7.
    3. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Stephen Morgan, "undated". "Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Bank Stock Prices in China: A Causality Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/25, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    4. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    6. Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2016. "Asymmetric price transmission within the Argentinean stock market: an asymmetric threshold cointegration approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1115-1149, November.
    7. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
    8. Chan, Kam C. & Fung, Hung-Gay & Thapa, Samanta, 2007. "China financial research: A review and synthesis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 416-428.
    9. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    10. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2007. "Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 7(2), pages 1-12.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2006:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paresh Narayan & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: New Evidence from Panel Unit Root Tests for Seventeen European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(34), pages 1-6.
    13. Frank J. Fabozzi & Radu Tunaru & Tony Wu, 2004. "Modeling Volatility for the Chinese Equity Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 5(1), pages 79-92, May.
    14. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Lam, Tau-Hing & Yan, Isabel Kit-Ming, 2012. "Is the Chinese stock market really inefficient?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 122-137.
    15. Ece C. KARADAGLI & Nazlı C. OMAY, 2012. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency Of Emerging Markets: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 235-245.
    16. Alexakis, Christos, 2010. "Long-run relations among equity indices under different market conditions: Implications on the implementation of statistical arbitrage strategies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 389-403, October.
    17. Darrat, Ali F & Zhong, Maosen, 2000. "On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 105-124, August.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:34:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166.
    20. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Majumder, Debasish, 2014. "Asset pricing for inefficient markets: Evidence from China and India," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 282-291.
    22. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2015. "Managing financial risk in Chinese stock markets: Option pricing and modeling under a multivariate threshold autoregression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    23. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 103-108.
    24. Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.

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