IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/v2(631)y2022i2(631)p89-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The past, the present and the prospective future of efficient market hypothesis: a theoretical and empirical investigation of international stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Laurel PASRICHA

    (Kurukshetra University, India)

  • Neelam DHANDA

    (Kurukshetra University, India)

Abstract

This article discusses the documentary evidence on the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) generated in the middle of 20th century and 21st century so far to have a crystal clear understanding of whether the destiny of EMH has met an end or it will continue to play a crucial role in the modern finance. The debate that is ongoing between the conflicting ideologies of EMH and the behavioral finance is presented here. Further, to have a comprehensive understanding of the concept, this article empirically tests the validity of the weak-form of market efficiency by implementing various tests such as unit root test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron test), variance ratio test, runs test, serial correlation LM test, GARCH model, etc. We study the data of eleven indices pertaining to nine developed and emerging nations of the world. The study then concludes with a futuristic view that the concept of EMH will continue to be one of the most and widely accepted theories by academicians despite the availability of a pile of literature that discards or goes against the hypothesis, until and unless the behavioral theorists come up with a concrete theory guiding stock pricing and return behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurel PASRICHA & Neelam DHANDA, 2022. "The past, the present and the prospective future of efficient market hypothesis: a theoretical and empirical investigation of international stock markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 89-106, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:2(631):y:2022:i:2(631):p:89-106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1597.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.ectap.ro/articol.php?id=1597&rid=147
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sharma, J. L. & Kennedy, Robert E., 1977. "A Comparative Analysis of Stock Price Behavior on the Bombay, London, and New York Stock Exchanges," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 391-413, September.
    2. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    3. Neha Seth & A. K. Sharma, 2015. "International stock market efficiency and integration," Journal of Advances in Management Research, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 88-106, August.
    4. Abraham Abraham & Fazal J. Seyyed & Sulaiman A. Alsakran, 2002. "Testing the Random Walk Behavior and Efficiency of the Gulf Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 469-480, August.
    5. Graham Smith & Keith Jefferis & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2002. "African stock markets: multiple variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 475-484.
    6. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    7. Rajen Mookerjee & Qiao Yu, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60.
    8. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    9. Kam C. Chan & Benton E. Gup & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 803-813.
    10. Mobarek, Asma & Fiorante, Angelo, 2014. "The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 217-232.
    11. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
    12. Campbell, John Y. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig & Whitelaw, Robert F., 1998. "The Econometrics Of Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 559-562, December.
    13. A. Sabur Mollah, 2007. "Testing Weak-Form Market Efficiency In Emerging Market: Evidence From Botswana Stock Exchange," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(06), pages 1077-1094.
    14. Kam C. Chan & Benton E. Gup & Ming‐Shiun Pan, 1997. "International Stock Market Efficiency and Integration: A Study of Eighteen Nations," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 803-813, July.
    15. Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
    16. Solnik, Bruno H, 1973. "Note on the Validity of the Random Walk for European Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1151-1159, December.
    17. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    18. Buguk, Cumhur & Wade Brorsen, B., 2003. "Testing weak-form market efficiency: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 579-590.
    19. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    20. Kwong-C. Cheung & J. Andrew Coutts, 2001. "A note on weak form market efficiency in security prices: evidence from the Hong Kong stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 407-410.
    21. István Ábel & Pierre L. Siklos & István P. Székely, 1998. "Money and Finance in the Transition to a Market Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 830.
    22. Mookerjee, Rajen & Yu, Qiao, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the equity markets in China," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 41-60, June.
    23. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    24. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    25. Ojah, Kalu & Karemera, David, 1999. "Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests of Latin American Emerging Equity Markets: A Revisit," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 57-72, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erdas Mehmet Levent, 2019. "Validity of Weak-Form Market Efficiency in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs): Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 399-428, December.
    2. Sami Al Kharusi & Robert O. Weagley, 2014. "Weak Form Market Efficiency During the 2008 Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Muscat Securities Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(4), pages 27-42.
    3. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    5. Truong Dong Loc & Ger Lanjouw & Robert Lensink, 2010. "Stock-market efficiency in thin-trading markets: the case of the Vietnamese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3519-3532.
    6. Müge Özdemir, 2022. "Analyzing the Efficient Market Hypothesis with the Structural Break and Nonlinear Unit Root Tests: An Application on Borsa Istanbul," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 257-282, December.
    7. Senarathne Chamil W., 2020. "Are Religious Believers Irrational: A Direct Test from an Efficient Market Hypothesis," Financial Sciences. Nauki o Finansach, Sciendo, vol. 25(1), pages 35-53, March.
    8. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Weak-form market efficiency in European emerging and developed stock markets," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 159, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    9. Akber, Ushna & Muhammad, Nabeel, 2013. "Is Pakistan Stock Market moving towards Weak-form efficiency? Evidence from the Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of free-float of shares of KSE 30 Index," MPRA Paper 49128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2010. "Some Further Evidence on the Behaviour of Stock Returns in India," MPRA Paper 48518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Lim Kai Jie, Shawn & Chadha, Pavneet & Lau, Joshua & Potdar, Nishad, 2012. "Is the Mongolian Equity Market Efficient? Empirical Evidence from Tests of Weak-Form Efficiency," MPRA Paper 41834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.
    13. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    14. Ushna Akber & Nabeel Muhammad, 2014. "Is Pakistan Stock Market Moving towards Weak-Form Efficiency? Evidence from The Karachi Stock Exchange and the Random Walk Nature of Free-Float of Shares of KSE 30 Index," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(6), pages 808-836, June.
    15. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    16. Subrata Roy, 2018. "Testing Random Walk and Market Efficiency: A Cross-Stock Market Analysis," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(4), pages 225-238, November.
    17. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    18. Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Khalili Araghi, Mansour, 2014. "Evaluation of the adaptive market hypothesis as an evolutionary perspective on market efficiency: Evidence from the Tehran stock exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 50-59.
    19. Mensah, Justice T. & Pomaa-Berko, Maame & Adom, Philip Kofi, 2012. "Does Automation Improve Stock Market Efficiency? Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 43642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. DePenya, Francisco J. & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2007. "Serial correlation in the Spanish Stock Market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 84-103.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:2(631):y:2022:i:2(631):p:89-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marin Dinu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/agerrea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.