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Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets

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  • Graham Smith
  • Hyun-Jung Ryoo

Abstract

The hypothesis that stock market price indices follow a random walk is tested for five European emerging markets, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Turkey, using the multiple variance ratio test. In four of the markets, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. For the Istanbul market, which had markedly higher turnover than the other markets in the 1990s, the stock price index follows a random walk. This contrasts with the results of earlier research, carried out for periods of lower turnover, which rejected the random walk hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Graham Smith & Hyun-Jung Ryoo, 2003. "Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 290-300.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:290-300
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847021000025777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ana Rita Gonzaga & Helder Sebastião, 2011. "As Ações Portuguesas Seguem um Random Walk? Implicações para a Eficiência de Mercado e para a Definição de Estratégias de Transação," GEMF Working Papers 2012-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    2. Abullah M. Noman & Minhaz U. Ahmed, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign exchange markets in South Asian Countries," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-18, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Jun 2008.
    3. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    4. Maria Rosa Borges, 2010. "Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
    5. Maria Rosa Borges, 2011. "Random walk tests for the Lisbon stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 631-639.
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance-Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    7. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2009. "On the random walk characteristics of stock returns in India," MPRA Paper 46499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2015. "Time-varying long term memory in the European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 147-158.
    9. repec:spr:annopr:v:245:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-014-1719-y is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dobija, Dorota & Klimczak, Karol Marek, 2010. "Development of accounting in Poland: Market efficiency and the value relevance of reported earnings," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 356-374, September.
    11. Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
    12. Ece C. KARADAGLI & Nazlı C. OMAY, 2012. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency Of Emerging Markets: A Nonlinear Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(3(21)/ Fa), pages 235-245.
    13. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    14. Graham Smith, 2008. "Liquidity And The Informational Efficiency Of African Stock Markets," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 161-175, June.
    15. repec:kap:iaecre:v:15:y:2009:i:1:p:59-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Kabir Hassan, M. & Alam, Nafis, 2014. "Price discovery process in the emerging sovereign CDS and equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 117-132.
    17. Gábor Bóta & Mihály Ormos, 2015. "Development of stock market pricing in Central and Eastern Europe through two decades after the transition," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 685-708, November.
    18. Yunus Kilic & Mehmet Fatih Bugan, 2016. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Evidence from Turkey," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(10), pages 262-272, October.
    19. Krzysztof Kompa & Aleksandra Matuszewska-Janica, 2009. "Efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: Analysis of Selected Properties," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 15(1), pages 59-70, February.
    20. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Kabir Sarkar Humayun & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Are Islamic equity indices more efficient than their conventional counterparts ? Evidence from major global index families," Working Papers 2014-91, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    21. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-091 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. A. Sensoy & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "How much random does European Union walk? A time-varying long memory analysis," Working Papers Series 342, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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