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Variance ratio tests of the random walk hypothesis for European emerging stock markets

  • Graham Smith
  • Hyun-Jung Ryoo
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    The hypothesis that stock market price indices follow a random walk is tested for five European emerging markets, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal and Turkey, using the multiple variance ratio test. In four of the markets, the random walk hypothesis is rejected because of autocorrelation in returns. For the Istanbul market, which had markedly higher turnover than the other markets in the 1990s, the stock price index follows a random walk. This contrasts with the results of earlier research, carried out for periods of lower turnover, which rejected the random walk hypothesis.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 9 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 290-300

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:9:y:2003:i:3:p:290-300
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    1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hochberg, Yosef, 1974. "Some generalizations of the T-method in simultaneous inference," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 224-234, June.
    3. Andrew W. Lo & Craig A. MacKinlay, . "The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 28-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Jorge L. Urrutia, 1995. "Tests Of Random Walk And Market Efficiency For Latin American Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(3), pages 299-309, 09.
    5. Ayadi, O. Felix & Pyun, C. S., 1994. "An application of variance ratio test to the Korean securities market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 643-658, September.
    6. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August.
    7. Peter Huber, 1997. "Stock market returns in thin markets: evidence from the Vienna Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 493-498.
    8. E. Dockery & M. G. Kavussanos, 1996. "Testing the efficient market hypothesis using panel data, with application to the Athens stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-123.
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