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Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions

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  • Eduardo José Araújo Lima
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical evidence that official interventions are associated with periods of high predictability in exchange rate markets. We employ a block bootstrap methodology to build critical values for the Variance Ratio statistics and test for predictability within moving windows of fixed length sizes for major developed countries currencies. Empirical results suggest that interventions are indeed associated to periods of increase in predictability and that time varying risk premium may, at least partially, explain such results.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:173
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps173.pdf
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    1. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.

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