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Variance-Ratio Tests: Small-Sample Properties with an Application to International Output Data

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  • Cecchetti, Stephen G
  • Lam, Pok-sang

Abstract

Two aspects of statistical inference using variance-ratio statistics are studied, (1) the accuracy of asymptotic approximations in small samples and (2) the size distortion arising from searching over many horizons in deciding whether to reject a model. A joint test combining variance-ratio statistics at various horizons is proposed and a Monte Carlo procedure for conducting exact inference is provided. The real output data of nine countries are used to discuss these issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang, 1994. "Variance-Ratio Tests: Small-Sample Properties with an Application to International Output Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 177-186, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:12:y:1994:i:2:p:177-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Catherine J. Morrison, 1989. "Unraveling the Productivity Growth Slowdown in the U.S., Canada and Japan: The Effects of Subequilibrium, Scale Economies and Markup," NBER Working Papers 2993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Morrison, Catherine J, 1988. "Quasi-Fixed Inputs in U.S. and Japanese Manufacturing: A Generalized Leontief Restricted Cost Function Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 275-287, May.
    3. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "The Relation between Price and Marginal Cost in U.S. Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 921-947, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luger, Richard, 2003. "Exact non-parametric tests for a random walk with unknown drift under conditional heteroscedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 259-276.
    2. Sensoy, Ahmet & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2016. "Dynamic efficiency of stock markets and exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 353-371.
    3. Bley, Jorg, 2011. "Are GCC stock markets predictable?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 217-237, September.
    4. Yamin Ahmad & Ivan Paya, 2014. "Temporal Aggregation of Random Walk Processes and Implications for Asset Prices," Working Papers 14-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics.
    5. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Amelie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Testing for Random Walk Behavior in Euro Exchange Rates," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 25-45.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Aras, Guler & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Predictability dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 222-248.
    8. Eduardo Jose Araujo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2004. "Tests of the random walk hypothesis for equity markets: evidence from China, Hong Kong and Singapore," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 255-258.
    9. Joao Sousa Andrade & Irina Syssoyeva-Masson, 2016. "Investigating the presence of long memory in debt series and its relation with growth," EcoMod2016 9627, EcoMod.
    10. Chang, Eui Jung & Lima, Eduardo Jose Araujo & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "Testing for predictability in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 295-316, September.
    11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance-Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    12. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.
    13. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.
    14. Roberto Ortiz & Mauricio Contreras & Marcelo Villena, 2015. "On the Efficient Market Hypothesis of Stock Market Indexes: The Role of Non-synchronous Trading and Portfolio Effects," Papers 1510.03926, arXiv.org.
    15. Simone Bianco & Roberto Ren'o, 2006. "Unexpected volatility and intraday serial correlation," Papers physics/0610023, arXiv.org.
    16. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Lima, Eduardo J.A., 2009. "Market efficiency of Brazilian exchange rate: Evidence from variance ratio statistics and technical trading rules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(3), pages 814-820, May.

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