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Evidence of Risk Premiums in Foreign Currency Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • McCurdy, Thomas H
  • Morgan, Ieuan

Abstract

Weekly data for foreign currency futures prices are examined for evidence of risk premiums. Covariance risks are measured with respect to the excess returns from benchmark portfolios for consumption and wealth. When the parameters representing the prices of the covariance risks are held constant, no risk premiums are detected. However, when these prices are allowed to vary with the conditional expected returns and variances of the benchmark portfolios, possibly reflecting changing investment opportunities, strong evidence of risk premiums is obtained. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • McCurdy, Thomas H & Morgan, Ieuan, 1992. "Evidence of Risk Premiums in Foreign Currency Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 65-83.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:5:y:1992:i:1:p:65-83
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joëlle Miffre, 2004. "The Conditional Price of Basis Risk: An Investigation Using Foreign Exchange Instruments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7‐8), pages 1043-1068, September.
    2. Wang, Changyun, 2004. "Futures trading activity and predictable foreign exchange market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1023-1041, May.
    3. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Can hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in United States aggregate- and industry-level exchange rate risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 169-196, November.
    4. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 1996. "Time‐varying risk premia in the foreign currency futures basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 735-755, October.
    5. David Watt, 1997. "Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns Between Markets," Staff Working Papers 97-18, Bank of Canada.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2008. "Stochastic risk premiums, stochastic skewness in currency options, and stochastic discount factors in international economies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 132-156, January.
    7. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? : Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    8. Wang, Steven Shuye & Jiang, Li, 2004. "Location of trade, ownership restrictions, and market illiquidity: Examining Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1273-1297, June.
    9. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
    10. Gagnon, Louis & Lypny, Gregory J. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 1998. "Hedging foreign currency portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-220, September.
    11. Joëlle Miffre, 2004. "The Conditional Price of Basis Risk: An Investigation Using Foreign Exchange Instruments," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(7-8), pages 1043-1068.
    12. Halil Ibrahim Bulut, 2005. "Mudaraba-Venture Capital Closed-end Mutual Funds and Mudaraba-Venture Capital Open-end Mutual Funds," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 31-58.
    13. John M Maheu & Azam Shamsi Zamenjani, 2021. "Nonparametric Dynamic Conditional Beta," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 583-613.
    14. Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2008. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Relationship between the Random Walk Hypothesis and Official Interventions," Working Papers Series 173, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    16. Frank Coggins & Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Michel Gendron, 2009. "Mutual Fund Daily Conditional Performance," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 95-122, June.
    17. Sapp, Stephen, 2004. "Are all Central Bank interventions created equal? An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-474, March.
    18. Sadýk Cukur & Yusuf Volkan Topuz, 2005. "Exchange Rate Exposure: An Empirical Application for Textile Industry on the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 19-30.
    19. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
    20. Oral Erdogan & Harald Schmidbauer, 2006. "Investors’ Selection Between Two Financial Markets: A Conditional Correlation Approach," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 8(30), pages 1-18.
    21. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2008_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Tom A. FEARNLEY, 2002. "Estimation of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds," FAME Research Paper Series rp95, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    23. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Hunter, Delroy M., 2008. "Does hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in US aggregate and industry-level exchange rate risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2008, Bank of Finland.
    24. Kumar, Satish & Trück, Stefan, 2014. "Unbiasedness and risk premiums in the Indian currency futures market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 13-32.
    25. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2001. "A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 441-460.

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