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Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality

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  • Graham Smith

Abstract

The hypothesis that stock index returns form a martingale difference sequence (MDS) is tested for 10 European emerging stock markets: the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Russia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey and the Ukraine, using joint variance ratio tests based on signs and the wild bootstrap, for the period beginning in January 1998 and ending in September 2007. For comparative purposes, the same tests are carried out with data for the United Kingdom and the United States. In two of the emerging markets, Poland and Turkey, and the two developed markets, none of the tests rejects the martingale hypothesis. For the stock markets in Malta, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia, all of the evidence finds that stock index returns do not form a martingale difference sequence. The results are discussed in light of stock market characteristics: size, liquidity and the quality of the market are important for MDS returns.

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  • Graham Smith, 2009. "Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 249-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:249-262
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470802423262
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    Cited by:

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    3. João A. Bastos & Jorge Caiado, 2014. "Clustering financial time series with variance ratio statistics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2121-2133, December.
    4. Amira Akl Ahmed, 2014. "Evolving and relative efficiency of MENA stock markets: evidence from rolling joint variance ratio tests," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 91-126, May.
    5. Fathia Elleuch Lahyani, 2014. "Are MENA and Pacific Basin Stock Equity Markets Predictable?," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(4), pages 21582440145, December.
    6. Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
    7. Joanna Olbry�, 2014. "Is illiquidity risk priced? The case of the Polish medium-size emerging stock market," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(6), pages 513�536-5.
    8. Aneta Dyakova & Graham Smith, 2013. "The evolution of stock market predictability in Bulgaria," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(9), pages 805-816, May.
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    10. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
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