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Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets

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  • Alexandru Todea
  • Dorina Lazar

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of the Global crisis on the relative efficiency of ten Central and Eastern European emerging stock markets, using the Generalized Spectral test of Escanciano and Velasco (2006) in a rolling window approach. This test is robust to the distributional assumptions, to the presence of time-varying volatility, being able to detect a wide range of linear and non-linear dependencies in conditional mean. The results suggest that the degree of markets inefficiency varies through time, providing empirical support for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis rather than for a clear trend towards higher efficiency as postulated by the classical Efficient Market Hypothesis. Surprisingly, during the crisis period there has been registered an improvement of the degree of efficiency in the case of seven markets out of ten.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:04:y:2012:i:1:p:045-053
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    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Small sample properties of alternative tests for martingale difference hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 151-154, February.
    2. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-185, September.
    3. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
    4. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D., 2010. "Why Do Emerging Stock Markets Experience More Persistent Price Deviations From A Random Walk Over Time? A Country-Level Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S1), pages 3-41, May.
    5. Dragota, Victor & Mitrica, Eugen, 2004. "Emergent capital markets' efficiency: The case of Romania," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 353-360, June.
    6. Graham Smith, 2009. "Martingales in European emerging stock markets: Size, liquidity and market quality," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 249-262.
    7. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    8. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
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    10. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    11. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu, 2008. "Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1123-1126.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Valentina Tilica, 2014. "The Month-of-the-Year Effect in Post-Communist East European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 029-040, June.
    2. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    3. Ciumas Cristina & Chis Diana-Maria & Botos Horia Mircea, 2012. "Global Financial Crisis And Unit-Linked Insurance Markets Efficiency: Empirical Evidence From Central And Eastern European Countries," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 443-448, December.
    4. Anghelache, Gabriela Victoria & Kralik, Lorand Istvan & Acatrinei, Marius & Pete, Stefan, 2014. "Influence of the EU Accession Process and the Global Crisis on the CEE Stock Markets: A Multivariate Correlation Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 35-52, June.
    5. Victor Dragota & Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Informational Efficiency Tests on the Romanian Stock Market: A Review of the Literature," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 015-028, June.

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