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Small sample properties of alternative tests for martingale difference hypothesis

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  • Charles, Amélie
  • Darné, Olivier
  • Kim, Jae H.

Abstract

A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to compare power properties of alternative tests for the martingale difference hypothesis. Overall, we find that the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test shows the highest power against linear dependence; while the generalized spectral test performs most desirably under nonlinear dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Small sample properties of alternative tests for martingale difference hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 151-154, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:110:y:2011:i:2:p:151-154
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    1. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    2. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Velasco, Carlos, 2006. "Generalized spectral tests for the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 151-185, September.
    3. Escanciano, J. Carlos & Lobato, Ignacio N., 2009. "An automatic Portmanteau test for serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 140-149, August.
    4. Choi, In, 1999. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis for Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 293-308, May-June.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    6. Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Wild bootstrapping variance ratio tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 38-43, July.
    7. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
    8. Lobato, Ignacio & Nankervis, John C & Savin, N E, 2001. "Testing for Autocorrelation Using a Modified Box-Pierce Q Test," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(1), pages 187-205, February.
    9. Manuel Dominguez & Ignacio Lobato, 2003. "Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 351-377.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Graham Smith & Aneta Dyakova, 2014. "African Stock Markets: Efficiency and Relative Predictability," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 258-275, June.
    2. Cesar Rufino, 2013. "Random walks in the different sectoral submarkets of the Philippine Stock Exchange amid modernization," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 50(1), pages 57-82, June.
    3. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2014. "Precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," Working Papers hal-01010516, HAL.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim & Etienne Redor, 2016. "Stock Exchange Mergers and Market," Post-Print hal-01238707, HAL.
    5. Camilo González & Luisa F. Silva & Carmiña O. Vargas & Andrés M. Velasco, 2013. "An exploration on interbank markets and the operational framework of monetary policy in Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010982, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Huai-Long Shi & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Time-varying return predictability in the Chinese stock market," Papers 1611.04090, arXiv.org.
    7. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae Kim, 2017. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis for Islamic Stock Portfolios: Evidence from Dow Jones Size and Sector-Indices," Post-Print hal-01526483, HAL.
    8. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
    9. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1607-1626.
    10. Camilo González & Luisa Silva & Carmiña Vargas & Andrés M. Velasco, 2014. "Uncertainty in the Money Supply Mechanism and Interbank Markets in Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 32(73), pages 36-49, July.
    11. Verheyden, Tim & De Moor, Lieven & Van den Bossche, Filip, 2015. "Towards a new framework on efficient markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 294-308.
    12. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Adaptive markets hypothesis for Islamic stock indices: Evidence from Dow Jones size and sector-indices," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 100-112.
    13. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2015. "Will precious metals shine? A market efficiency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 284-291.
    14. Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2014. "Testing the Martingale Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 537-554, October.
    16. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim & Etienne Redor, 2016. "Stock exchange mergers and market efficiency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 576-589, February.
    17. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
    18. Kian-Ping Lim & Weiwei Luo & Jae H. Kim, 2013. "Are US stock index returns predictable? Evidence from automatic autocorrelation-based tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 953-962, March.
    19. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Risk prediction management and weak form market efficiency in Eurozone financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 384-393.
    20. Linton, Oliver & Smetanina, Ekaterina, 2016. "Testing the martingale hypothesis for gross returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 664-689.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monte Carlo experiment Nonlinear dependence Portmanteau test Variance ratio test;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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