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Will precious metals shine ? A market efficiency perspective

Author

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  • Amélie Charles

    (Audencia Recherche - Audencia Business School)

  • Olivier Darné

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jae H. Kim

    (School of Economics and Finance - School of Economics and Finance)

Abstract

Precious metals (gold, silver, and platinum) have become an important part of investment portfolios for individuals as well as for institutions. This paper examines the weak-form efficiency of precious metal markets, using the automatic portmanteau and variance ratio tests. It is found that return predictability of these markets has been changing over time, depending on the prevailing economic and political conditions. The return predictability of gold and silver markets has been showing downward trends, implying that the degree of the weak-form efficiency of these markets has been gradually improving. In particular, the gold market has been highly efficient recently, showing the highest degree of market efficiency among the three precious metal markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2015. "Will precious metals shine ? A market efficiency perspective," Post-Print hal-01238706, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01238706
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2015.01.018
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-audencia.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01238706
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    2. Schweikert, Karsten, 2018. "Are gold and silver cointegrated? New evidence from quantile cointegrating regressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 44-51.
    3. Labidi, Chiaz & Rahman, Md Lutfur & Hedström, Axel & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios, 2018. "Quantile dependence between developed and emerging stock markets aftermath of the global financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-211.
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Dowling, Michael & Gao, Xiangyun & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian & Vigne, Samuel A., 2019. "An analysis of the intellectual structure of research on the financial economics of precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Esra ALP & Ünal SEVEN, 2019. "Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Etkinlik Analizi," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(1), pages 84-112, May.
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    7. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    8. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    9. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    10. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Eleftheriou, Sofia, 2016. "Gold returns: Do business cycle asymmetries matter? Evidence from an international country sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-170.
    12. Syeda Tayyaba Ijaz & Rabia Komal, 2015. "Role Of Hurst Exponent In Prediction Of Market Efficiency In Kse-100 Index," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 11(2), pages 41-54.
    13. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    14. Mr. M. Awais Mehmood & Dr. Faisal Aftab & Dr. Hafiz Mushtaq, 2016. "Role Of Social Media Marketing (Smm) In Hei’S Admission," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 12(1), pages 12-10.
    15. Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Yao, Yiran & Faff, Robert, 2016. "Diamonds vs. precious metals: What shines brightest in your investment portfolio?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-14.
    16. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Peat, Maurice, 2016. "Gold and silver manipulation: What can be empirically verified?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 168-176.
    17. Perera, Devmali & Białkowski, Jędrzej & Bohl, Martin T., 2020. "Does the tea market require a futures contract? Evidence from the Sri Lankan tea market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2017. "The price of shelter - Downside risk reduction with precious metals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 48-58.
    19. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    20. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2017. "Investor demand, market efficiency and spot-futures relation: Further evidence from crude palm oil," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 135-146.
    21. Baur, Dirk G. & Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2020. "Investing in gold – Market timing or buy-and-hold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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