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The effects of economic news on commodity prices

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  • Roache, Shaun K.
  • Rossi, Marco

Abstract

We assess how commodity prices respond to macroeconomic news and show that commodities have been relatively insensitive to such news over daily frequencies between 1997 and 2009 compared to other financial assets and major exchange rates. Where commodity prices are influenced by news, there is a pro-cyclical bias and these sensitivities have risen as commodities have become increasingly financialized. However, models based on news still do a relatively poor job of forecasting commodity prices at daily frequencies. We also find some asymmetries in how commodity prices respond to news, most notably for gold, which alone among commodities acts as a safe-haven when "bad" economic news emerges.

Suggested Citation

  • Roache, Shaun K. & Rossi, Marco, 2010. "The effects of economic news on commodity prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 377-385, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:50:y:2010:i:3:p:377-385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nagayev, Ruslan & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Should Shariah-compliant investors include commodities in their portfolios? New evidence," MPRA Paper 58851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:riibaf:v:41:y:2017:i:c:p:148-157 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-18-00024 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Charlot, Philippe & Marimoutou, Vêlayoudom, 2014. "On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting with a multivariate regime-switching decision tree," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 456-467.
    5. Tim Pullen & Karen Benson & Robert Faff, 2014. "A Comparative Analysis of the Investment Characteristics of Alternative Gold Assets," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(1), pages 76-92, March.
    6. Smales, Lee A. & Yang, Yi, 2015. "The importance of belief dispersion in the response of gold futures to macroeconomic announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.
    7. Zheng, Yao, 2015. "The linkage between aggregate investor sentiment and metal futures returns: A nonlinear approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 128-142.
    8. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:292-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-412 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Michis, Antonis A., 2014. "Investing in gold: Individual asset risk in the long run," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 369-374.
    11. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Tsagkanos, Athanasios, 2017. "Intraday analysis of macroeconomic news surprises and asymmetries in mini-futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 150-168.
    12. Walid Bahloul & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News Surprises and Uncertainty of Major Economies on Returns and Volatility of Oil Futures," Working Papers 201715, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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