IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v32y2005i1-2p297-323.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Jian Yang
  • R. Brian Balyeat
  • David J. Leatham

Abstract

This paper examines the lead‐lag relationship between futures trading activity (volume and open interest) and cash price volatility for major agricultural commodities. Granger causality tests and generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that an unexpected increase in futures trading volume unidirectionally causes an increase in cash price volatility for most commodities. Likewise, there is a weak causal feedback between open interest and cash price volatility. These findings are generally consistent with the destabilizing effect of futures trading on agricultural commodity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:32:y:2005:i:1-2:p:297-323
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00595.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00595.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00595.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arjun Chatrath & Sanjay Ramchander & Frank Song, 1996. "The role of futures trading activity in exchange rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 561-584, August.
    2. G. Geoffrey Booth & Mustafa Chowdhury & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 1997. "Intraday Volatility in International Stock Index Futures Markets: Meteor Showers or Heat Waves?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1564-1576, November.
    3. Figlewski, Stephen, 1981. "Futures Trading and Volatility in the GNMA Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 445-456, May.
    4. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatruth, 1998. "Futures Commitments and Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3‐4), pages 501-520, April.
    5. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    6. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 21-39, March.
    7. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J, 1992. "Futures-Trading Activity and Stock Price Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 2015-2034, December.
    8. Avraham Kamara, 1982. "Issues in futures markets: A survey," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 261-294, September.
    9. Stein, Jeremy C, 1987. "Informational Externalities and Welfare-Reducing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1123-1145, December.
    10. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 109-126, March.
    11. Chen, Nai-Fu & Cuny, Charles J & Haugen, Robert A, 1995. "Stock Volatility and the Levels of the Basis and Open Interest in Future Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 281-300, March.
    12. Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2000. "Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 661-685, August.
    13. Kamara, Avraham, 1993. "Production Flexibility, Stochastic Separation, Hedging, and Futures Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(4), pages 935-957.
    14. Robert D. Weaver & Aniruddha Banerjee, 1990. "Does futures trading destabilize cash prices? Evidence for U. S. live beef cattle," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 41-60, February.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1983. "Commercial use and speculative measures of the livestock commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 113-135, June.
    17. Ali F. Darrat & Shafiqur Rahman, 1995. "Has futures trading activity caused stock price volatility?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 537-557, August.
    18. Pashigian, B Peter, 1986. "The Political Economy of Futures Market Regulation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 55-84, April.
    19. Abdullah, Dewan A & Rangazas, Peter C, 1988. "Money and the Business Cycle: Another Look," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 680-685, November.
    20. Robert T. Daigler & Marilyn K. Wiley, 1999. "The Impact of Trader Type on the Futures Volatility‐Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2297-2316, December.
    21. Ali F. Darrat & Shafiqur Rahman & Maosen Zhong, 2002. "On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 431-444, September.
    22. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatruth, 1998. "Futures Commitments and Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3&4), pages 501-520.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    2. Meenakshi Malhotra & Dinesh Kumar Sharma, 2016. "Volatility Dynamics in Oil and Oilseeds Spot and Futures Market in India," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(2), pages 132-148, June.
    3. Ashish Kumar, 2015. "Impact of Currency Futures on Volatility in Exchange Rate," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 95-108, June.
    4. C. P. Gupta & Sanjay Sehgal & Sahaj Wadhwa, 2018. "Agricultural Commodity Trading: Is it Destabilizing Spot Markets?," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 43(1), pages 47-57, March.
    5. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Bhargava, Vivek & Malhotra, D.K., 2007. "The relationship between futures trading activity and exchange rate volatility, revisited," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 95-111, April.
    7. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    8. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Kizys, Renatas & Floros, Christos, 2014. "Dynamic Spillover Effects in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 53876, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ming-Hsien Chen & Vivian Tai, 2014. "The price discovery of day trading activities in futures market," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 217-239, July.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas, 2016. "Dynamic spillover effects in futures markets: UK and US evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 406-418.
    11. Christos Floros, 2007. "Price and Open Interest in Greek Stock Index Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 191-202, May.
    12. Chiu-Lan Chang & Ming Fang, 2015. "An Analysis on Trading Behaviors of Currency Futures: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 134-134, May.
    13. Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi, 2021. "Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 381-396, March.
    14. Hung, Mao-Wei & So, Leh-Chyan, 2009. "New insights into India’s single stock futures markets," MPRA Paper 52491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jahangir Sultan, 2012. "Options on federal funds futures and interest rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 330-359, April.
    16. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.
    17. Ya-Wen Lai, 2023. "Impact of futures’ trader types on stock market quality: evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 417-436, June.
    18. Stéphane Yen & Ming-Hsiang Chen, 2010. "Open interest, volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 113-141, April.
    19. Geir H. Bjønnes & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2002. "Volume and Volatility in the FX-Market: Does it matter who you are?," CESifo Working Paper Series 786, CESifo.
    20. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2002. "Return-volume dynamics in UK futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 707-713.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:32:y:2005:i:1-2:p:297-323. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.