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Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets

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  • Huseyin Gulen
  • Stewart Mayhew

Abstract

This article examines stock market volatility before and after the introduction of equity‐index futures trading in twenty‐five countries, using various models that account for asynchronous data, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric volatility responses, and the joint dynamics of each country's index with the world‐market portfolio. We found that futures trading is related to an increase in conditional volatility in the United States and Japan, but in nearly every other country, we found either no significant effect or a volatility‐dampening effect. This result appears to be robust to model specification and is corroborated by further analysis of the relationship between volatility, trading volume, and open interest in stock futures. An increase in conditional covariance between country‐specific and world returns at the time of futures listing is also documented. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:661–685, 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2000. "Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 661-685, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:20:y:2000:i:7:p:661-685
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    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Sultan, 2012. "Options on federal funds futures and interest rate volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 330-359, April.
    2. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    3. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    4. repec:eee:jfinec:v:132:y:2019:i:1:p:26-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sila Alan, Nazli & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K. & Korkmaz, Sibel, 2016. "Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 855-880.
    7. repec:eee:ecolet:v:172:y:2018:i:c:p:23-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:quaeco:v:67:y:2018:i:c:p:149-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:wyz:journl:id:399 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:eee:glofin:v:35:y:2018:i:c:p:157-169 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:ods:journl:v:8:y:2019:i:3:p:125-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:quaeco:v:72:y:2019:i:c:p:191-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:rss:jnljef:v2i2p5 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eee:reveco:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:183-197 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Alex YiHou Huang, 2011. "Volatility forecasting in emerging markets with application of stochastic volatility model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 665-681.
    16. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 271-279.
    17. Joocheol Kim, 2005. "An investigation of the relationship between bond market volatility and trading activities: Korea treasury bond futures market," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 25-29, January.
    18. Trabelsi Mnif, Afef, 2017. "Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 206-214.
    19. Kalantzis, Fotis G. & Milonas, Nikolaos T., 2013. "Analyzing the impact of futures trading on spot price volatility: Evidence from the spot electricity market in France and Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 454-463.
    20. repec:bec:imsber:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:uii:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:61-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:118-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.
    24. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.

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