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On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?

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  • Ali F. Darrat
  • Shafiqur Rahman
  • Maosen Zhong

Abstract

We examine the role of index futures trading in spot market volatility. We use the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) approach to measure volatility, analyze causality and feedback relations between volatilities in the spot and futures markets, and test various hypotheses in the context of a multivariate model that incorporates other macrostate variables. Our empirical results suggest index futures trading may not be blamed for the observed volatility in the spot market. Rather, we find stronger and more consistent support for the alternative posture that volatility in the futures market is an outgrowth of a turbulent cash market. We use the regret (cognitive dissonance) theory to explain our results. The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali F. Darrat & Shafiqur Rahman & Maosen Zhong, 2002. "On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 431-444.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:3:p:431-444
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    Cited by:

    1. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    2. Hung, Mao-Wei & So, Leh-Chyan, 2009. "New insights into India’s single stock futures markets," MPRA Paper 52491, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bhargava, Vivek & Malhotra, D.K., 2007. "The relationship between futures trading activity and exchange rate volatility, revisited," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 95-111, April.
    4. Sila Alan, Nazli & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K. & Korkmaz, Sibel, 2016. "Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Evangelos Drimbetas & Nikolaos Sariannidis & Nicos Porfiris, 2007. "The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: evidence from the Greek stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 139-148.
    6. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    7. Babajide Fowowe, 2014. "Paper oil and physical oil: has speculative pressure in oil futures increased volatility in spot oil prices?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 38(3), pages 356-372, September.

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