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Quantification of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets

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  • Vladimir Filimonov
  • David Bicchetti
  • Nicolas Maystre

Abstract

We propose a “reflexivity” index that quantifies the relative importance of short-term endogeneity/reflexivity for several commodity futures markets (corn, oil, soybeans, sugar, and wheat) and a benchmark equity futures market (E-mini S&P 500). Our reflexivity index is defined as the average ratio of the number of price moves that are due to endogenous interactions to the total number of all price changes, which also include exogenous events. Estimated reflexivity levels are obtained by calibrating the Hawkes self-excited conditional Poisson model on time series of price changes. The Hawkes model accounts simultaneously for the co-existence and interplay between the exogenous impact of news and the endogenous mechanism by which past price changes may influence future price changes. Our robustness tests show that our index provides a ‘pure’ measure of endogeneity that is independent of the rate of activity, order size, volume or volatility. We find an overall increase of the reflexivity index since the middle of the first decade of the 21st century to October 2012, which implies that, on a monthly basis, at least 60–70 per cent of commodity price changes are now due to self-generated activities rather than novel information, compared to 20–30 per cent earlier. While our reflexivity index is defined on short-time windows (10 minutes) and thus does not capture long-term memory, we discover striking coincidence between its dynamics and that of the price hikes and abrupt falls that developed since 2006 and culminated in early 2009.

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  • Vladimir Filimonov & David Bicchetti & Nicolas Maystre, 2013. "Quantification of the High Level of Endogeneity and of Structural Regime Shifts in Commodity Markets," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 212, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:unc:dispap:212
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörg Mayer, 2013. "Towards More Balanced Growth Strategies In Developing Countries: Issues Related To Market Size, Trade Balances And Purchasing Power," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 214, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    2. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels, 2014. "A Creepy World," Papers 1401.3281, arXiv.org.
    3. Kolodziej, Marek & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kulatilaka, Nalin & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas, 2014. "Crude oil: Commodity or financial asset?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 216-223.
    4. Carlos M. Correa, 2015. "Intellectual property: How much room is left for industrial policy?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 223, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    5. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:129-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrew Cornford, 2014. "Macroprudential Regulation: Potential Implications For Rules For Cross-Border Banking," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 216, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    7. repec:eee:pacfin:v:45:y:2017:i:c:p:186-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ulrich Hoffmann, 2015. "Can green growth really work and what are the true (socio-)economics of Climate Change?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 222, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    9. Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2017. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1706.07459, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2017.
    10. Wheatley, Spencer & Filimonov, Vladimir & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "The Hawkes process with renewal immigration & its estimation with an EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 120-135.
    11. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Bruno Remillard & Robert Elliott & Jonathan Chavez-Casillas, 2017. "Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Papers 1712.03106, arXiv.org.
    12. Shigehisa Kasahara, 2013. "The Asian Developmental State And The Flying Geese Paradigm," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 213, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    13. Vladimir Filimonov & Didier Sornette, 2013. "Apparent criticality and calibration issues in the Hawkes self-excited point process model: application to high-frequency financial data," Papers 1308.6756, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    14. Stephany Griffith-Jones, 2014. "A Brics Development Bank: A Dream Coming True?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 215, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    15. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
    16. Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Chen & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang & Wei-Xing Zhou & H Eugene Stanley, 2016. "Limit-order book resiliency after effective market orders: Spread, depth and intensity," Papers 1602.00731, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.

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