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The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?

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  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache
  • Mr. Marco Rossi

Abstract

The paper uses an event study methodology to investigate which and how macroeconomic announcements affect commodity prices. Results show that gold is unique among commodities, with prices reacting to specific scheduled announcements in the United States and the Euro area (such as indicators of activity or interest rate decisions) in a manner consistent with gold's traditional role as a safe-haven and store of value. Other commodity prices, where such news is significant, exhibit pro-cyclical sensitivities and these have risen somewhat as commodities have become increasingly financialized. These results are important for those trading in the commodity markets on a frequent basis and long-term market participants that take their decisions based on information on price fundamentals, which are reflected in the release of macroeconomic announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Mr. Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 2009/140, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/140
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    3. A. Fronzetti Colladon & F. Grippa & B. Guardabascio & G. Costante & F. Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting consumer confidence through semantic network analysis of online news," Papers 2105.04900, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris, 2020. "Gold as a hedge against oil shocks: Evidence from new datasets for oil shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Macro News and Commodity Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 68-80, January.
    6. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Tahir, Hammad, 2021. "What do we know about the inflation-hedging property of precious metals in Africa? The case of leading producers of the commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Atri, Hanen & Kouki, Saoussen & Gallali, Mohamed imen, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Naveed Raza & Aneese Hayat Awan, 2014. "Commodities and Stock Investment," SAGE Open, , vol. 4(3), pages 21582440145, September.
    9. Arayssi, Mahmoud, 2013. "Price Drivers and Investment Strategies of Gold," MPRA Paper 56115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Tarek Chebbi, 2021. "The response of precious metal futures markets to unconventional monetary surprises in the presence of uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1897-1916, April.
    11. Natalia María Acevedo Prins & Luis Miguel Jiménez Gómez & Miguel David Rojas López, 2014. "Efecto de las variables macroeconómicas globales y locales sobre el comportamiento de los futuros de la TRM en Colombia," Escenarios: Empresas y Territorio, Institución Universitaria ESUMER, January.
    12. Sharon Kozicki & Eric Santor & Lena Suchanek, 2015. "Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects," Staff Working Papers 15-21, Bank of Canada.
    13. Semeyutin, Artur & Downing, Gareth, 2022. "Co-jumps in the U.S. interest rates and precious metals markets and their implications for investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Jiang, Wei & Chen, Yunfei, 2022. "The time-frequency connectedness among metal, energy and carbon markets pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. A. Karunagaran, 2013. "Global Crisis And The Demand For Gold By Central Banks: A Review Essay With Reference To India," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-18.
    16. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 320-328.
    17. Castillo, Carlos, 2014. "Inflation targeting and exchange rate volatility smoothing: A two-target, two-instrument approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 330-345.
    18. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2020. "The hedging effectiveness of industrial metals against different oil shocks: Evidence from the four newly developed oil shocks datasets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

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