IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v72y2021ics0301420721001343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What do we know about the inflation-hedging property of precious metals in Africa? The case of leading producers of the commodities

Author

Listed:
  • Adekoya, Oluwasegun B.
  • Oliyide, Johnson A.
  • Tahir, Hammad

Abstract

Against the limited evidence of inflation-hedging potential of precious metals in Africa, this study examines the possibility of the four most popular and globally traded precious metals, namely gold, platinum, silver and palladium, in hedging investors against inflation risks in six African countries known for the production of the metals. We employ different empirical techniques in order to explore the inherent statistical features of the series. On a general note, we believe more in the results of the regime-dependent model which reveals the presence of nonlinearity and time variation in the results and show improved hedging performance. Our results suggest that inflation risks can be hedged by at least one precious metal in all the selected countries. Silver and gold provide the strongest (in five countries, i.e. Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania) and weakest (in just one country, i.e. Namibia) hedging performances respectively. Also, Namibia is the country whose inflation risks can be hedged by the highest number of metals (i.e. gold, silver and palladium). From these findings, we suggest that investors in these countries should begin to explore the effective strength of metals against the increasing risks of inflation inherent in most African countries. Also, the influencing role of nonlinearity and time variation should not be overlooked.

Suggested Citation

  • Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Tahir, Hammad, 2021. "What do we know about the inflation-hedging property of precious metals in Africa? The case of leading producers of the commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420721001343
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102120?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anh D.M. Nguyen & Jemma Dridib & Filiz D. Unsal & Oral H. Williams, 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 71-84.
    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    3. Gogolin, Fabian & Kearney, Fearghal, 2016. "Does speculation impact what factors determine oil futures prices?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 119-122.
    4. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac & Silanine, Alexandre, 2019. "Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 212-228.
    5. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Malik, Farooq & McAleer, Michael, 2011. "Risk management of precious metals," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 435-441.
    6. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    7. Eggoh, Jude C. & Khan, Muhammad, 2014. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 133-143.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Republic of Congo: 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/282, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Nicaragua: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/377, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Abel Mawuko Agoba & Joshua Abor & Kofi A. Osei & Jarjisu Sa-Aadu, 2017. "Central bank independence and inflation in Africa : The role of financial systems and institutional quality," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(4), pages 131-146.
    11. Hossein Hassani & Emmanuel Sirimal Silva & Rangan Gupta & Mawuli K. Segnon, 2015. "Forecasting the price of gold," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(39), pages 4141-4152, August.
    12. Kim, Jae H. & Ryoo, Heajin H., 2011. "Common stocks as a hedge against inflation: Evidence from century-long US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 168-171.
    13. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Naifar, Nader & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed Saleh, 2013. "Nonlinear analysis among crude oil prices, stock markets' return and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 416-431.
    16. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    17. Aye, Goodness C. & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is gold an inflation-hedge? Evidence from an interrupted Markov-switching cointegration model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 77-84.
    18. Magnus Ericsson & Olof Löf, 2019. "Mining’s contribution to national economies between 1996 and 2016," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(2), pages 223-250, July.
    19. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Mr. Marco Rossi, 2009. "The Effects of Economic News on Commodity Prices: Is Gold Just Another Commodity?," IMF Working Papers 2009/140, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sohail, Asiya & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2019. "Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 602-615.
    21. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    22. Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A. & Wang, Shixuan & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "Return spillovers between white precious metal ETFs: The role of oil, gold, and global equity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 316-332.
    23. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-480 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    25. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    26. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging potential of coal and iron ore in Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    27. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Gogolin, Fabian & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Vigne, Samuel A., 2018. "Time-variation in the relationship between white precious metals and inflation: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 55-70.
    28. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    29. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2020. "The hedging effectiveness of industrial metals against different oil shocks: Evidence from the four newly developed oil shocks datasets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    30. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    31. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    32. Nicholas Apergis, 2015. "Asymmetric real exchange rate pass-through and poverty in China: evidence from a nonlinear model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(12), pages 951-954, August.
    33. Arnold, Stephan & Auer, Benjamin R., 2015. "What do scientists know about inflation hedging?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 187-214.
    34. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Mexico: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/334, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    36. Jouini, Jamel & Harrathi, Nizar, 2014. "Revisiting the shock and volatility transmissions among GCC stock and oil markets: A further investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 486-494.
    37. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "On The Fisher Effect: A Review," MPRA Paper 77916, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Olubiyi, Ebenezer A. & Adedeji, Adedayo O., 2023. "The inflation-hedging performance of industrial metals in the world's most industrialized countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Oliyide, Johnson A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Marie, Mohamed & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2023. "Green finance and commodities: Cross-market connectedness during different COVID-19 episodes," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    3. Cheng, Sheng & Zhang, Zongyou & Cao, Yan, 2022. "Can precious metals hedge geopolitical risk? Fresh sight using wavelet coherence analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. NEIFAR, MALIKA & HACHICHA, Fatma, 2022. "GFH validity for Canada, UK, and Suisse stock markets: Evidence ‎from univariate and panel ARDL models," MPRA Paper 114613, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sephton, Peter S., 2022. "Revisiting the inflation-hedging properties of precious metals in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Olubiyi, Ebenezer A. & Adedeji, Adedayo O., 2023. "The inflation-hedging performance of industrial metals in the world's most industrialized countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging potential of coal and iron ore in Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Ndako, Umar B., 2020. "The inflation hedging properties of gold, stocks and real estate: A comparative analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Valadkhani, Abbas & Nguyen, Jeremy & Chiah, Mardy, 2022. "When is gold an effective hedge against inflation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris, 2020. "Gold as a hedge against oil shocks: Evidence from new datasets for oil shocks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    8. Sephton, Peter S., 2022. "Revisiting the inflation-hedging properties of precious metals in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Cunado, Juncal & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Persistence in trends and cycles of gold and silver prices: Evidence from historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 345-354.
    10. Pattnaik, Debidutta & Hassan, M. Kabir & DSouza, Arun & Ashraf, Ali, 2023. "Investment in gold: A bibliometric review and agenda for future research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2020. "Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    13. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sohail, Asiya & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2019. "Does gold act as a hedge against different nuances of inflation? Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile and causality-in- quantiles approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 602-615.
    14. Zhu, Xuehong & Niu, Zibo & Zhang, Hongwei & Huang, Jiaxin & Zuo, Xuguang, 2022. "Can gold and bitcoin hedge against the COVID-19 related news sentiment risk? New evidence from a NARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
    16. Aye, Goodness C. & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Does gold act as a hedge against inflation in the UK? Evidence from a fractional cointegration approach over 1257 to 2016," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 53-57.
    17. Dey, Shubhasis & Sampath, Aravind, 2020. "Returns, volatility and spillover – A paradigm shift in India?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Blau, Benjamin M. & Griffith, Todd G. & Whitby, Ryan J., 2021. "Inflation and Bitcoin: A descriptive time-series analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    20. Yingying Xu & Chi-Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1189, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precious metals; Inflation risks; Hedging; Nonlinearity; Time-variation; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:72:y:2021:i:c:s0301420721001343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.