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Risk Management of Precious Metals

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh

    (LeBow College of Business, Drexel University)

  • Farooq Malik

    (College of Business, University of Southern Mississippi)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

This paper examines volatility and correlation dynamics in price returns of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and explores the corresponding risk management implications for market risk and hedging. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is used to analyze the downside market risk associated with investments in precious metals, and to design optimal risk management strategies. We compute the VaR for major precious metals using the calibrated RiskMetrics, different GARCH models, and the semi-parametric Filtered Historical Simulation approach. The best approach for estimating VaR based on conditional and unconditional statistical tests is documented. The economic importance of the results is highlighted by assessing the daily capital charges from the estimated VaRs.

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File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP765.pdf
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Paper provided by Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research in its series KIER Working Papers with number 765.

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Length: 28pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:765
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Web page: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/eng/index.html
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  1. McAleer, M.J. & Jiménez-Martín, J.A. & Pérez-Amaral, T., 2008. "A decision rule to minimize daily capital charges in forecasting value-at-risk," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-34, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  2. Chng, Michael T., 2009. "Economic linkages across commodity futures: Hedging and trading implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 958-970, May.
  3. Michael McAleer, 2009. "The Ten Commandments for Optimizing Value-at-Risk and Daily Capital Charges," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0910, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  4. Giot Pierre & Laurent Sebastien, 2001. "Modelling daily value-at-risk using realized volatility and arch type models," Research Memorandum 014, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  5. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Yuan Yuan & Michael McAleer & Mark A. Thompson, 2009. "Precious Metals-Exchange Rate Volatility Transmissions and Hedging Strategies," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-684, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  6. Michael McAleer & Les Oxley, 2005. "The Ten Commandments for Academics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 823-826, December.
  7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  8. Jonathan Andrew Batten & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Volatility in the gold futures market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 187-190, January.
  9. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  10. Michael Mcaleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Forecasting value-at-risk with a parsimonious portfolio spillover GARCH (PS-GARCH) model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1-19.
  11. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
  12. Pérignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2010. "The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 362-377, February.
  13. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yuan, Yuan, 2008. "Metal volatility in presence of oil and interest rate shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 606-620, March.
  14. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, 05.
  15. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(04), pages 535-551, December.
  16. Giovanni Barone-Adesi & Kostas Giannopoulos & Les Vosper, 2002. "Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 31-58.
  17. Pérignon, Christophe & Deng, Zi Yin & Wang, Zhi Jun, 2008. "Do banks overstate their Value-at-Risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 783-794, May.
  18. Juan-�ngel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez-Amaral, 2009. "The Ten Commandments For Managing Value At Risk Under The Basel Ii Accord," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 850-855, December.
  19. David Cabedo, J. & Moya, Ismael, 2003. "Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 239-253, May.
  20. Michael McAleer & Bernardo da Veiga, 2008. "Single-index and portfolio models for forecasting value-at-risk thresholds," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 217-235.
  21. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  22. Gita Persand & Chris Brooks, 2003. "Volatility forecasting for risk management," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-22.
  23. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
  24. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
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