IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v21y2020ics1703494920300074.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam
  • Hadzic, Muris

Abstract

Assets such as gold, silver, government bonds are widely considered good hedges against adverse movements in the stock market. At times, market participants move between these markets in order to hedge against any immediate risks. The shifts from one market to another likely create a dynamic relationship between the stock market and other assets. We investigate short-run and long-run causality between the industry returns and the prices of the four assets: gold, silver, oil, and 10-year Treasury bonds. Using symmetric and asymmetric Granger causality, we try to identify different industries within the S&P500 that are caused by movement in the prices of these four assets. Although we were able to find short-run and long-run bidirectional causality between the four asset prices and share returns in many industries, our findings are industry-specific. We discover overwhelming and robust evidence of symmetric and asymmetric causality between 10-Year Treasury yield and returns of almost all 18 industries we considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2020. "Asymmetric causality between stock returns and usual hedges: An industry-level analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:21:y:2020:i:c:s1703494920300074
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2020.e00160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494920300074
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2020.e00160?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    2. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    4. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    5. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Wan, Ning, 2007. "Dividend payments with a threshold strategy in the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by diffusion," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 509-523, May.
    8. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    9. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
    10. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 267-276.
    11. Tursoy, Turgut & Faisal, Faisal, 2018. "The impact of gold and crude oil prices on stock market in Turkey: Empirical evidences from ARDL bounds test and combined cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 49-54.
    12. Cong, Rong-Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Jiao, Jian-Lin & Fan, Ying, 2008. "Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3544-3553, September.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2017. "The Japanese trade balance and asymmetric effects of yen fluctuations: Evidence using nonlinear methods," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 56-63.
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
    15. Baur, Dirk G. & McDermott, Thomas K., 2010. "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1886-1898, August.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    17. Thi Hong Van Hoang & Amine Lahiani & David Heller, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Post-Print hal-02012307, HAL.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    19. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2017. "The price of shelter - Downside risk reduction with precious metals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 48-58.
    20. Aggarwal, Raj & Akhigbe, Aigbe & Mohanty, Sunil K., 2012. "Oil price shocks and transportation firm asset prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1370-1379.
    21. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2006. "Consumption asymmetry and the stock market: Empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 337-342, December.
    22. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    23. Emmanuel Anoruo, 2011. "Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Price Changes and Stock Market Returns," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 4(3), pages 75-92, December.
    24. Wang, Kuan-Min & Lee, Yuan-Ming & Thi, Thanh-Binh Nguyen, 2011. "Time and place where gold acts as an inflation hedge: An application of long-run and short-run threshold model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 806-819, May.
    25. Naifar, Nader & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed Saleh, 2013. "Nonlinear analysis among crude oil prices, stock markets' return and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 416-431.
    26. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    27. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "Testing for causality between the gold return and stock market performance: evidence for ‘gold investment in case of emergency’," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 27-40, January.
    28. Dongho Song, 2017. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2761-2817.
    29. Henrik Hasseltoft & Dominic Burkhardt, 2012. "Understanding Asset Correlations," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-38, Swiss Finance Institute.
    30. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    31. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
    32. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    33. Wo-Chiang Lee & Hui-Na Lin, 2012. "Threshold effects in the relationships between USD and gold futures by panel smooth transition approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1065-1070, July.
    34. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2019. "Asymmetric causality between oil price and stock returns:A sectoral analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-174.
    35. Tsai, Chun-Li, 2015. "How do U.S. stock returns respond differently to oil price shocks pre-crisis, within the financial crisis, and post-crisis?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 47-62.
    36. Li, Sile & Lucey, Brian M., 2017. "Reassessing the role of precious metals as safe havens–What colour is your haven and why?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 1-14.
    37. Scruggs, John T. & Glabadanidis, Paskalis, 2003. "Risk Premia and the Dynamic Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 295-316, June.
    38. Bildirici, Melike E. & Turkmen, Ceren, 2015. "Nonlinear causality between oil and precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 202-211.
    39. Bredin, Don & Conlon, Thomas & Potì, Valerio, 2015. "Does gold glitter in the long-run? Gold as a hedge and safe haven across time and investment horizon," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 320-328.
    40. Hood, Matthew & Malik, Farooq, 2013. "Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 47-52.
    41. Marcello Pericoli, 2018. "Macroeconomics determinants of the correlation between stocks and bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1198, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    42. Nandha, Mohan & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Does oil move equity prices? A global view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 986-997, May.
    43. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682-746.
    44. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    45. Cameron, Ken & Schnusenberg, Oliver, 2009. "Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq: An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 375-381, May.
    46. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between oil prices and sectoral stock prices: Nonlinear evidence from Kuwait stock exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1286061-128, January.
    47. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2019. "On the Link between Value of the Dollar and Housing Production in the U.S.: Evidence from State Level Data," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 231-274.
    48. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Income and price elasticity of gold import demand in India: Empirical evidence from threshold and ARDL bounds test cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-142.
    49. Gupta, Kartick, 2016. "Oil price shocks, competition, and oil & gas stock returns — Global evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 140-153.
    50. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
    51. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2011. "New evidence on oil price and firm returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3253-3262.
    52. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 211-226.
    53. Hajilee, Massomeh & Niroomand, Farhang, 2019. "On the link between financial market inclusion and trade openness: An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 373-381.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junchao Zhang & Wei Han, 2022. "Carbon emission trading and equity markets in China: How liquidity is impacting carbon returns?," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 6466-6478, December.
    2. Hong, Yanran & Ma, Feng & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao, 2022. "How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the causality between gold and the stock market? New evidence from the extreme Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Hajilee, Massomeh & Niroomand, Farhang, 2021. "Is there an asymmetric link between the shadow economy and the financial depth of emerging market economies?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ghodsi, Seyed Hesam & Hadzic, Muris, 2019. "Asymmetric causality between oil price and stock returns:A sectoral analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 165-174.
    2. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    3. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    4. Sarwar, Suleman & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Awais & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "The importance of oil assets for portfolio optimization: The analysis of firm level stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 217-234.
    5. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2018. "Asymmetric impact of oil price on Islamic sectoral stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 128-139.
    7. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    8. Chang, Bisharat Hussain & Sharif, Arshian & Aman, Ameenullah & Suki, Norazah Mohd & Salman, Asma & Khan, Syed Abdul Rehman, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of oil price on sectoral Islamic stocks: New evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    10. Godil, Danish Iqbal & Sarwat, Salman & Khan, Muhammad Kamran & Ashraf, Muhammad Sajjad & Sharif, Arshian & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2022. "How the price dynamics of energy resources and precious metals interact with conventional and Islamic Stocks: Fresh insight from dynamic ARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Haykir, Ozkan & Yagli, Ibrahim & Aktekin Gok, Emine Dilara & Budak, Hilal, 2022. "Oil price explosivity and stock return: Do sector and firm size matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Yingying Xu & Chi-Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2021. "Is gold a useful hedge against inflation across multiple time horizons?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1175-1189, March.
    13. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Abdelbari El Khamlichi & Thi Hong Van Hoang & Wing‐keung Wong, 2016. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," Post-Print hal-02965765, HAL.
    16. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Kumar, Satish, 2017. "On the nonlinear relation between crude oil and gold," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 219-224.
    18. Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2021. "Are Indian sectoral indices oil shock prone? An empirical evaluation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Tziogkidis, Panagiotis, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and cross-hedging between gold, oil and equities: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 440-453.
    20. Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Zhu, Zhenzhen & El Khamlichi, Abdelbari & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2019. "Does the Shari’ah screening impact the gold-stock nexus? A sectorial analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 617-626.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Commodity prices; Asymmetric causality; U.S. industry data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:21:y:2020:i:c:s1703494920300074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.