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Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?

Author

Listed:
  • Bachar Fakhry

    () (University of Lahore, Pakistan)

  • Christian Richter

    () (German University in Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract

Following the landmark ruling by the German Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe on 7th February 2014 in which they endorsed the efficient market hypothesis, we present evidence on the efficiency of the German financial market. Introducing a new variance bound test based on the Component-GARCH model of volatility to analyse the long- and short-runs effects on the efficiency of the German financial market, we test the price volatility of four markets: DAX stock index, German sovereign debt index as provided by Barclays and Bloomberg, Euro gold index by the World Gold Council and Euro currency index by the Bank of England. Our use of the Component-GARCH-T model highlight two key contributions, the first being the analysis of the efficiency of the market in the long and short runs. However, a more important contribution is the result of our variance bound test highlight the relatively strong acceptance of the efficient market hypothesis in both the short and long runs in all the observed financial markets. It must be stated our research is of importance to researches in both applied finance and portfolio management. The influencing question of what moves specific markets is crucial to market participants seeking market alpha for their investments strategies and portfolio optimisations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2018. "Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 111-125, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:men:journl:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:111-125
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.11118/ejobsat.v4i2.120
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    File URL: https://journal.ejobsat.cz/index.php/ejobsat/article/view/120/158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    EMH; volatility tests; C-GARCH-T; financial markets; gold market;

    JEL classification:

    • B13 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Neoclassical through 1925 (Austrian, Marshallian, Walrasian, Wicksellian)
    • B21 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Microeconomics
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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