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The Risk‐Return Relation in International Stock Markets

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  • Hui Guo

Abstract

We investigate the risk‐return relation in international stock markets using realized variance constructed from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) daily stock price indices. In contrast with the capital asset pricing model, realized variance by itself provides negligible information about future excess stock market returns; however, we uncover a positive and significant risk‐return tradeoff in many countries after controlling for the (U.S.) consumption‐wealth ratio. U.S. realized variance is also significantly related to future international stock market returns; more importantly, it always subsumes the information content of its local counterparts. Our results indicate that stock market variance is an important determinant of the equity premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Guo, 2006. "The Risk‐Return Relation in International Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 565-587, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:41:y:2006:i:4:p:565-587
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6288.2006.00157.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
    2. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "About the soundness of the US-cay indicator for predicting international banking crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 237-256.
    3. Liu, Jingzhen, 2019. "Impacts of lagged returns on the risk-return relationship of Chinese aggregate stock market: Evidence from different data frequencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 243-257.
    4. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1406-1423, November.
    5. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    6. Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.
    7. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, September.
    8. Prabheesh, K.P. & Vidya, C.T., 2018. "Do business cycles, investment-specific technology shocks matter for stock returns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 511-524.
    9. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    10. Yufeng Han, 2011. "On the relation between the market risk premium and market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1711-1723.

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