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On the risk-return relation in international stock markets

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  • Hui Guo

Abstract

We investigate the risk-return relation in international stock markets using realized variance constructed from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) daily stock price indices. In contrast with CAPM, realized variance by itself provides negligible information about future excess stock market returns; however, we uncover a positive and significant risk-return tradeoff in many countries after controlling for the (U.S.) consumption-wealth ratio. U.S. realized variance is also significantly related to future international stock market returns; more importantly, it always subsumes the information content of its local counterparts. Our results indicate that stock market variance is an important determinant of the equity premium. ; Earlier title: Does stock market volatility forecast returns: the international evidence

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Guo, 2006. "On the risk-return relation in international stock markets," Working Papers 2003-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-012
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    Cited by:

    1. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "Banking sectors' international interconnectedness: Implications for consumption risk sharing in Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Liu, Jingzhen, 2019. "Impacts of lagged returns on the risk-return relationship of Chinese aggregate stock market: Evidence from different data frequencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 243-257.
    4. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2018. "Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 111-125.
    5. Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.
    6. Ahmad, Wasim & Sharma, Sumit Kumar, 2018. "Testing output gap and economic uncertainty as an explicator of stock market returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 293-306.
    7. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, September.
    8. Prabheesh, K.P. & Vidya, C.T., 2018. "Do business cycles, investment-specific technology shocks matter for stock returns?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 511-524.
    9. Yufeng Han, 2011. "On the relation between the market risk premium and market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1711-1723.
    10. Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Developed markets’ business cycle dynamics and time-variation in emerging markets’ asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 76-82.
    11. Nitschka, Thomas, 2011. "About the soundness of the US-cay indicator for predicting international banking crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 237-256.
    12. Nitschka, Thomas, 2010. "Cashflow news, the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1406-1423, November.
    13. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    14. Kim, Eung-Bin & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2021. "Risk, ambiguity, and equity premium: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 321-335.

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    Keywords

    Stock market; International finance;

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