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Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets

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  • Alexandru Todea
  • Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu

Abstract

This article introduces a modified version of the Hinich and Patterson (1995) windowed-test procedure and uses it to detect linear and nonlinear dependencies in the case of six Central and East European stock markets. Testing the original methodology leads us to the same conclusions as those found on other emerging markets: relatively long random walk periods are interrupted by short and intense linear and/or nonlinear correlations. But, our findings diverge when we run the modified test procedure, additional windows rejecting the random walk hypothesis (RWH) being isolated. This divergence, heavily weighing the task of correctly evaluating the informational efficiency degree (the weak form), is significant for the Czech, Hungarian and Romanian markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu, 2008. "Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1123-1126.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:15:y:2008:i:14:p:1123-1126
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600993614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ammermann, Peter A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2003. "The cross-sectional and cross-temporal universality of nonlinear serial dependencies: Evidence from world stock indices and the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, April.
    2. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    3. Jean-François Nivet, 1997. "Stock markets in transition: the Warsaw experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 171-183, May.
    4. Chun, Rodney M., 2000. "Compensation vouchers and equity markets: Evidence from Hungary," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1155-1178, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexandru Todea & Andrei Rusu, 2014. "Liquidity, information and market efficiency: an intraday approach on a frontier stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(4), pages 2303-2307.
    2. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    3. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu & Angela-Maria Filip, 2009. "Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-72.
    4. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
    5. Victor DRAGOTA & Carmen LIPARA & Radu CIOBANU, 2013. "Agency Problems and Synergistic Effects in Romania: The Determinants of the Control Premium," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(2), pages 197-219, May.
    6. Henryk Gurgul & Robert Syrek, 2010. "Polish stock market and some foreign markets - dependence analysis by regime-switching copulas," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 8, pages 21-39.
    7. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
    8. BRATIAN Vasile & BUCUR Amelia, 2017. "The Development And The Current Status Of The Capital Market Hypotheses: A Few Benchmarks," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 22-28, April.
    9. Alexandru Todea & Dorina Lazar, 2012. "Global Crisis and Relative Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 045-053, June.
    10. repec:eee:phsmap:v:505:y:2018:i:c:p:454-470 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.
    12. Adela Deaconu & Anuţa Buiga & Cristina Nistor, 2010. "The Value Relevance of Fair Value," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 17(1), pages 151-169, May.
    13. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Todea, Alexandru & Pleşoianu, Anita, 2013. "The influence of foreign portfolio investment on informational efficiency: Empirical evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 34-41.
    15. Henryk Gurgul & Artur Machno, 2015. "Regime-Dependent Relationships among Stock Markets in Frankfurt, Vienna and Warsaw," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 13(1 (Spring), pages 3-25.
    16. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:140-:d:188230 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Victor Dragota & Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "Informational Efficiency Tests on the Romanian Stock Market: A Review of the Literature," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 6(1), pages 015-028, June.

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