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Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock

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  • Alexandru Todea
  • Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu
  • Angela-Maria Filip

Abstract

Numerous recent studies are emphasizing the existence of different stock price behaviors, namely long random walk sub periods alternating with short ones characterized by strong linear and/or nonlinear correlations. All these studies suggest that these serial dependencies have an episodic nature. In this paper we investigate the profitability of an optimum moving average strategy selected from 15,000 combinations on the main European capital markets considering the episodic character of linear and/or nonlinear dependencies, the period under study being 1997-2008. The empirical results are consistent the assumptions made by the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) of Lo (2004) regarding the fact that profit opportunities do exist from time to time. More than that, the paper proves that the profitability of those strategies is mainly due to nonlinear episodic dependencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu & Angela-Maria Filip, 2009. "Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xii:y:2009:i:1:p:63-72
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    9. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu, 2008. "Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1123-1126.
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    Cited by:

    1. Urquhart, Andrew & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2015. "How exactly do markets adapt? Evidence from the moving average rule in three developed markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 127-147.
    2. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Intadaviqotul Minakh & Erwin Saraswati & Abdul Ghofar, 2021. "The effect of financial and non-financial performance on investors’ reactions: The role of corporate governance mechanisms as moderating," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(8), pages 47-56, December.
    4. Alexandru Todea & Maria Ulici & Simona Silaghi, 2009. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis - Evidence from Asia-Pacific Financial Markets," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 007-013, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear dependence; Bi-correlation; Market Efficiency; Technical Analysis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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