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Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock

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  • Alexandru Todea
  • Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu
  • Angela-Maria Filip

Abstract

Numerous recent studies are emphasizing the existence of different stock price behaviors, namely long random walk sub periods alternating with short ones characterized by strong linear and/or nonlinear correlations. All these studies suggest that these serial dependencies have an episodic nature. In this paper we investigate the profitability of an optimum moving average strategy selected from 15,000 combinations on the main European capital markets considering the episodic character of linear and/or nonlinear dependencies, the period under study being 1997-2008. The empirical results are consistent the assumptions made by the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (AMH) of Lo (2004) regarding the fact that profit opportunities do exist from time to time. More than that, the paper proves that the profitability of those strategies is mainly due to nonlinear episodic dependencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu & Angela-Maria Filip, 2009. "Profitability of the Moving Average Strategy and the Episodic Dependencies: Empirical Evidence from European Stock," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-72.
  • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xii:y:2009:i:1:p:63-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eleftherios THALASSINOS, 2008. "Trends and Developments in the European Financial Sector," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(3), pages 44-61.
    2. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    3. Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6.
    4. Brooks, Chris & Hinich, Melvin J, 2001. "Bicorrelations and Cross-Bicorrelations As Non-linearity Tests and Tools for Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 181-196, April.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:1:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Efficiency in emerging markets--Evidence from the MENA region," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 94-105, February.
    7. Lim, Kian-Ping & Brooks, Robert D. & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Financial crisis and stock market efficiency: Empirical evidence from Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 571-591, June.
    8. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu, 2008. "Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1123-1126.
    9. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Pantelis E. Thalassinos, 2006. "Stock Markets' Integration Analysis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 3-14.
    10. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Urquhart, Andrew & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert, 2015. "How exactly do markets adapt? Evidence from the moving average rule in three developed markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 127-147.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear dependence; Bi-correlation; Market Efficiency; Technical Analysis.;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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