IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/68576.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Polish stock market and some foreign markets – dependence analysis by regime-switching copulas

Author

Listed:
  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Syrek, Robert

Abstract

The aim of this paper is investigation of DJIA, DAX, ATX and WIG20 interdependence based on weekly returns. In order to capture asymmetry of dependence structure Archimedean copulas were applied and symmetric structures are modelled with elliptical copulas. The strength of dependence between extreme events is examined by tail dependence coefficients. Changes in dependence patterns and parameter values are obtained by the application of the regime–switching model based on the first order Markov chain. We are using a two-step maximum likelihood estimation method which separates marginal distributions from the dependence structure. Parameters of copulas are estimated using Hamilton filter adopted to copulas. The copula based on regime–switching model allows us to model time varying dependence structure in a very flexible way. Empirical results confirm dynamic and asymmetric structure of dependence represented by stock markets under study, especially they verify strong and dynamic lower tail dependence.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgul, Henryk & Syrek, Robert, 2010. "Polish stock market and some foreign markets – dependence analysis by regime-switching copulas," MPRA Paper 68576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68576
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68576/1/MPRA_paper_68576.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ammermann, Peter A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2003. "The cross-sectional and cross-temporal universality of nonlinear serial dependencies: Evidence from world stock indices and the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, April.
    2. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    3. John M. Abowd & David S. Kaplan, 1999. "Executive Compensation: Six Questions That Need Answering," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 145-168, Fall.
    4. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2007. "Moment-Based Copula Tests for Financial Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 377-397, October.
    5. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    6. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    7. Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6.
    8. Lorán Chollete & Andréas Heinen & Alfonso Valdesogo, 2009. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime-switching Copula," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 437-480, Fall.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
    10. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    11. Lin, Wen-Ling & Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi, 1994. "Do Bulls and Bears Move across Borders? International Transmission of Stock Returns and Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 507-538.
    12. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    13. Kim, Sang W. & Rogers, John H., 1995. "International stock price spillovers and market liberalization: Evidence from Korea, Japan, and the United States," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133, June.
    14. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    15. Paola Palmitesta & Corrado Provasi, 2005. "Aggregation of Dependent Risks Using the Koehler–Symanowski Copula Function," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 189-205, February.
    16. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Martikainen, Teppo & Tse, Yiuman, 1997. "Price and volatility spillovers in Scandinavian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 811-823, June.
    17. Eun, Cheol S. & Shim, Sangdal, 1989. "International Transmission of Stock Market Movements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(2), pages 241-256, June.
    18. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
    19. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
    20. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    21. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    22. Alexandru Todea & Adrian Zoicas-Ienciu, 2008. "Episodic dependencies in Central and Eastern Europe stock markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 1123-1126.
    23. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    24. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    25. Pelletier, Denis, 2006. "Regime switching for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 445-473.
    26. Bessler, David A. & Yang, Jian, 2003. "The structure of interdependence in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 261-287, April.
    27. Manner Hans, 2010. "Testing for Asymmetric Dependence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-32, March.
    28. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:1:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 787-815, September.
    30. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    31. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    32. Jean‐François Nivet, 1997. "Stock markets in transition: the Warsaw experiment1," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 171-183, May.
    33. Adel Sharkasi & Heather J. Ruskin & Martin Crane, 2005. "Interrelationships Among International Stock Market Indices: Europe, Asia And The Americas," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(05), pages 603-622.
    34. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    35. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lorán Chollete & Andréas Heinen & Alfonso Valdesogo, 2009. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime-switching Copula," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 437-480, Fall.
    2. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    3. Su, Xiaoshan & Bai, Manying & Han, Yingwei, 2021. "Robust portfolio selection with regime switching and asymmetric dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. Garcia, René & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "Dependence structure and extreme comovements in international equity and bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1954-1970, August.
    5. Henryk Gurgul & Artur Machno, 2015. "Regime-Dependent Relationships among Stock Markets in Frankfurt, Vienna and Warsaw," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 13(1 (Spring), pages 3-25.
    6. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    7. Su, EnDer, 2014. "Measuring Contagion Risk in High Volatility State between Major Banks in Taiwan by Threshold Copula GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 58161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2013. "Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 361-377.
    12. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    13. Wang, Chou-Wen & Yang, Sharon S. & Huang, Hong-Chih, 2015. "Modeling multi-country mortality dependence and its application in pricing survivor index swaps—A dynamic copula approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 30-39.
    14. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    15. Chollete, Loran & Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Asymmetric Dependence in US Financial Risk Factors?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/2, University of Stavanger.
    16. Tong, Bin & Wu, Chongfeng & Zhou, Chunyang, 2013. "Modeling the co-movements between crude oil and refined petroleum markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 882-897.
    17. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger.
    18. Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2009. "Time Variation in Asset Return Dependence: Strength or Structure?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-052-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    19. Małgorzata Doman & Ryszard Doman, 2013. "Dynamic linkages between stock markets: the effects of crises and globalization," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(2), pages 87-112, August.
    20. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    copula; switching model; tail dependence coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:68576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.