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Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications

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  • Guidolin, Massimo
  • Timmermann, Allan

Abstract

This Paper characterizes the term structure of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall under different econometric approaches including multivariate regime switching, GARCH-in-mean models with student-t errors, two-component GARCH models and a non-parametric bootstrap. We show how to derive the risk measures for each of these models and document large variations in term structures across econometric specifications. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment applied to stock, bond and cash portfolios suggests that the best model is asset- and horizon specific but that the bootstrap and regime switching model are best overall for VaR levels of 5% and 1%, respectively.
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  • Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Term structure of risk under alternative econometric specifications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 285-308.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:131:y:2006:i:1-2:p:285-308
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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