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Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets

  • Kian-Ping Lim

    ()

    (Labuan School of International Business and Finance, Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Melvin J. Hinich

    ()

    (Applied Research Laboratories, University of Texas at Austin)

This study utilizes the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test in conjunction with the windowed testing procedure to examine the cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in the returns series for Asian stock market indices. As a whole, the detected non-linear dependencies do not appear to be persistent or stable across time for all the stock markets. In particular, the underlying process is of a switching type, with the pure noise process from time to time switches to a non-linear dependent stochastic process for some unknown length of time, and then switches back to pure-noise. This provides a plausible explanation for the disappointing forecasting performance of many non-linear models, as these existing models do not take note of the episodic transient nature of the non-linear dependency structures.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 7 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-6

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-04g10005
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  1. Hinich, Melvin J & Patterson, Douglas M, 1985. "Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 69-77, January.
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  8. Opong, Kwaku K. & Mulholland, Gwyneth & Fox, Alan F. & Farahmand, Kambiz, 1999. "The behaviour of some UK equity indices: An application of Hurst and BDS tests1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 267-282, September.
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  10. Sophie Robé & Reinhold Kosfeld, 2001. "Testing for nonlinearities in German bank stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 581-597.
  11. John Barkoulas & Nickolaos Travlos, 1998. "Chaos in an emerging capital market? The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 231-243.
  12. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1997. "The analysis of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 341-372, December.
  13. Antonios Antoniou & Nuray Ergul & Phil Holmes, 1997. "Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non-linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 3(2), pages 175-190.
  14. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Real-Time Equity Market Indices: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 864-80, July.
  15. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
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