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Nonlinear event detection in the Chilean stock market

Author

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  • Rafael Romero-Meza
  • Claudio Bonilla
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

This study searches for economic and political events that may explain the episodic nonlinearities detected in the returns series of the Chilean stock market index. This methodology is a reverse form of event study. After applying the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test to detect episodes of nonlinear behaviour of the index, we investigate what might be the explanation of this behaviour. Our findings may help to explain the difficulty to forecast asset returns. We also shed some light into the major political and economic events that contribute to the numerous short bursts of nonlinear dependence in the Chilean stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Romero-Meza & Claudio Bonilla & Melvin Hinich, 2007. "Nonlinear event detection in the Chilean stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 987-991.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:13:p:987-991
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600706024
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Bonilla & Jean Sepulveda, 2011. "Stock returns in emerging markets and the use of GARCH models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1321-1325.
    2. Coronado-Ramírez, Semei L. & Porras-Serrano, Jesús & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Estructuras no lineales en mercados eficientes: el caso IBEX-35," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Economía: Teoría y Métodos, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 116-129, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    3. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas & Rafael Romero-Meza & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2015. "A study of co-movements between USA and Latin American stock markets: a cross-bicorrelations perspective," Papers 1503.06926, arXiv.org.
    4. Semei Coronado-Ram'irez & Pedro Celso-Arellano & Omar Rojas, 2014. "Adaptive Market Efficiency of Agricultural Commodity Futures Contracts," Papers 1412.8017, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2015.
    5. Bruce Morley, 2019. "The Effects of Commodity Discoveries on Small Open Economies: Empirical Evidence from the Falkland Islands," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-10, October.
    6. Veli YILANCI, 2012. "Detection Of Nonlinear Events In Turkish Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 7(1(19)/ Sp), pages 93-96.
    7. Kwang-il Choe & Joshua Krausz & Kiseok Nam, 2011. "Technical trading rules for nonlinear dynamics of stock returns: evidence from the G-7 stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 323-353, April.
    8. Yavuz, Nilgün Çil & Yilanci, Veli, 2012. "Testing For Nonlinearity In G7 Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 69-79, September.
    9. Mauricio Jara-Bertin & Jean P. Sepulveda, 2014. "Earnings Management and Performance in Family-Controlled Firms:Evidence from an Emerging Economy," Serie Working Papers 01, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics, revised Nov 2014.
    10. Claudio A. Bonilla & Mariela Carvajal & Jean Sepúlveda, 2010. "Family Ownership and Firm Performance: A Closer Look at the Evidence from Public Companies in Chile," Serie de Documentos de Trabajo 08, Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros.

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