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Returns and the interest rate: a non-linear relationship in the Bogotastock market

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Abstract

This article presents some evidence of the non-linear and inverse relationship between the share prices on the Bogota stock market and the interest rate as measured by the interbank loan interest rate, which is to some extent affected by monetary policy. The model captures the stylized fact on this market of high dependence of returns in short periods of time. These findings do not support any efficiency on the main stock market in Colombia. Evidence of a non-constant equity premium is also found. The article uses daily data from January 1994 up to February 2000.

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  • L. E. Arango & A. Gonzalez & C. E. Posada, 2002. "Returns and the interest rate: a non-linear relationship in the Bogotastock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 835-842.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:11:p:835-842
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110094493
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    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity prices since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," MPRA Paper 76542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Pallegedara, Asankha, 2012. "Dynamic relationships between stock market performance and short term interest rate Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 40773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
    4. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Has the South African Reserve Bank responded to equity returns since the sub-prime crisis? An asymmetric convergence approach," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 205-225.
    5. repec:eaa:aeinde:v:17:y:2017:i:2_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pooja Joshi & Arun Kumar Giri, 2015. "Fiscal Deficits and Stock Prices in India: Empirical Evidence," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Papadamou, Stephanos & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2017. "Interest rate dynamic effect on stock returns and central bank transparency: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 951-962.
    8. Jose Ignacio Lopez, 2018. "Predictibilidad del Mercado Accionario Colombiano," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 016086, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

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