IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/halshs-00172896.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Prat

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fredj Jawadi

Abstract

This paper aims to modeling stock prices adjustment dynamics toward their fundamentals. We used the class of Switching Transition Error Correction Models (STECM) and we showed that stock prices deviations toward fundamentals could be characterized by nonlinear adjustment process with mean reversion. First, according to Anderson (1997), De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2005) and Boswijk et al.(2006), we justify these nonlinearities by the presence of heterogeneous transaction costs, behavioural heterogeneity and the interaction between shareholders expectations. After, we present STECM specification. We apply this model to describe the G7 indexes adjustment dynamics toward their fundamentals. We showed that the G7 stock indexes adjustment is smooth and nonlinearly mean-reverting and that the convergence speeds vary according to the disequilibrium extent. Finally, using two indicators proposed by Peel and Taylor (2000), we determine phases of under- and overvaluation of stock prices and measure intensity of stock prices adjustment strengths.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Prat & Fredj Jawadi, 2007. "Nonlinear stock prices adjustment in the G7 countries," Working Papers halshs-00172896, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00172896
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00172896
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00172896/document
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jawadi, Fredj & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Money demand in the euro area, the US and the UK: Assessing the role of nonlinearity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 507-515.
    2. Baldi, Lucia & Vandone, Daniela & Peri, Massimo, 2010. "Is Wine a Financial Parachute?," 2010 International European Forum, February 8-12, 2010, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 100506, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Mondher Bellalah, 2011. "Nonlinear mean reversion in oil and stock markets," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 316-326, August.
    4. Jawadi, Fredj & Khanniche, Sabrina, 2012. "Modeling hedge fund exposure to risk factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1003-1018.
    5. Arouri, Mohamed & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007–2009 global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 175-187.
    6. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783.
    7. Mohamed E AROURI & Fredj JAWADI & Duc K NGUYEN, 2012. "Nonlinear modeling of oil and stock price dynamics: segmentation or time-varying integration?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2481-2489.
    8. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
    9. repec:kap:rqfnac:v:49:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-016-0604-y is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    11. Fredj Jawadi & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2013. "Modelling money demand: further evidence from an international comparison," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1052-1055, July.
    12. Lucia Baldi & Massimo Peri & Daniela Vandone, 2013. "Investing in the wine market: a country-level threshold cointegration approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 493-503, March.
    13. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2017. "Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 661-695, October.
    14. Jawadi, Fredj & Leoni, Patrick, 2009. "Threshold cointegration relationships between oil and stock markets," Discussion Papers of Business and Economics 3/2009, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Business and Economics.
    15. Jawadi Fredj & Ureche-Rangau Loredana, 2013. "Threshold linkages between volatility and trading volume: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 313-333, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Prices; Heterogeneous Transaction Costs; Nonlinear Adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00172896. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.