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Nonlinearities and financial contagion in Latin American stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Romero-Meza, Rafael
  • Bonilla, Claudio
  • Benedetti, Hugo
  • Serletis, Apostolos

Abstract

We use the Hinich (1996) portmanteau bicorrelation test to graphically represent nonlinear events detected in Latin American stock markets. We identify the starting, the ending, the intensity, and the persistence of nonlinear episodes. The six episodes identified in the period studied were found to be contemporaneous with international financial crises, which allows us to speculate that the contagion caused by financial crises induces nonlinear dependencies. We advocate that this test could be complementary to traditional tests employed in the study of financial contagion. We observe systematic nonlinear structure in the stock index return series that have been associated with temporary lack of market efficiency. This new approach can help financial analysts and regulators to assess graphically the state of dependence measured by the bicorrelation test as frequently as new information arrives.

Suggested Citation

  • Romero-Meza, Rafael & Bonilla, Claudio & Benedetti, Hugo & Serletis, Apostolos, 2015. "Nonlinearities and financial contagion in Latin American stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 653-656.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:653-656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.09.012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Brooks & Melvin J. Hinich, 2006. "Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(2), pages 241-259.
    2. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Market capitalization and efficiency. Does it matter? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 707-713.
    3. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    4. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
    5. Loaiza-Maya, Rubén Albeiro & Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2015. "Exchange rate contagion in Latin America," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 355-367.
    6. Hinich, Melvin J & Patterson, Douglas M, 1985. "Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 69-77, January.
    7. Semei Coronado & Omar Rojas & Rafael Romero-Meza & Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2015. "A study of co-movements between USA and Latin American stock markets: a cross-bicorrelations perspective," Papers 1503.06926, arXiv.org.
    8. Anil Sharma & Neha Seth, 2012. "Literature review of stock market integration: a global perspective," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 84-122, April.
    9. Chen, Gong-meng & Firth, Michael & Meng Rui, Oliver, 2002. "Stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1113-1141, June.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Romero-Meza, Rafael & Bonilla, Claudio A. & Hinich, Melvin J. & Bórquez, Ricardo, 2010. "Intraday Patterns In Exchange Rate Of Return Of The Chilean Peso: New Evidence For Day-Of-The-Week Effect," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S1), pages 42-58, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear behavior; Hinich bicorrelation test; Financial contagion;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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