Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?
In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher Brooks & Melvin Hinich, 1998. "Episodic nonstationarity in exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 719-722.
- Chan, Kam Fong & Gray, Philip & van Campen, Bart, 2008. "A new approach to characterizing and forecasting electricity price volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 728-743.
- Ammermann, Peter A. & Patterson, Douglas M., 2003. "The cross-sectional and cross-temporal universality of nonlinear serial dependencies: Evidence from world stock indices and the Taiwan Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 175-195, April.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
- Apostolos Serletis, 2007.
"Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Energy Markets,"
World Scientific Books,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6352, 04.
- Apostolos Serletis, 2012. "Quantitative and Empirical Analysis of Energy Markets," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8624, 04.
- Robert C. Merton, 1973.
"Theory of Rational Option Pricing,"
Bell Journal of Economics,
The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Non-linear Market Behavior: Events Detection in the Malaysian Stock Market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(6), pages 1-5.
- Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hinich, Melvin J., 2010. "Identifying Nonlinear Serial Dependence In Volatile, High-Frequency Time Series And Its Implications For Volatility Modeling," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(S1), pages 88-110, May.
- Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich, 2005. "Cross-temporal universality of non-linear dependencies in Asian stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6.
- John Foster & Melvin Hinich & Phillip Wild, 2008.
"Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market,"
Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers
2-2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
- John Foster & Melvin J. Hinich & Phillip Wild, 2008. "Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 105-130.
- Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2007. "GARCH inadequacy for modelling exchange rates: empirical evidence from Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2529-2533.
- Hinich, Melvin J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2007. "Episodic Nonlinear Event Detection in the Canadian Exchange Rate," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 68-74, March.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:1:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
- Czamanski, Daniel & Dormaar, Paul & Hinich, Melvin J. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2007. "Episodic nonlinearity and nonstationarity in Alberta's power and natural gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 94-104, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/607 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kian-Ping Lim & Melvin J. Hinich & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2005. "Statistical Inadequacy of GARCH Models for Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 4(3), pages 263-279, December.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
- Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008.
"Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 744-763.
- Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models," MPRA Paper 10428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Merton, Robert C., 1975.
"Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous,"
787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
- Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:6:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005.
"Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-42.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew C Worthington, 2004. "Systematic Features of High-Frequency Volatility in Australian Electricity Markets: Intraday Patterns, Information Arrival and Calendar Effects," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 186, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Hinich, Melvin A. & Wild, Phillip, 2001. "Testing Time-Series Stationarity Against An Alternative Whose Mean Is Periodic," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 380-412, June.
- Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
- Helyette Geman, 2005. "Commodities and Commodity Derivatives. Modeling and Pricing for Agriculturals, Metals and Energy," Post-Print halshs-00144182, HAL.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:5:p:1082-1091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.