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GARCH inadequacy for modelling exchange rates: empirical evidence from Latin America

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  • Claudio Bonilla
  • Rafael Romero-Meza
  • Melvin Hinich

Abstract

This article checks for the adequacy of using GARCH models in exchange rate series. Using the Hinich portmanteau bicorrelation test, we find that a GARCH formulation or any of its variants fails to capture the data generating process of the main Latin American exchange rates. Our results highlight the potential of having misleading public policy when estimates are based in GARCH types of models. This article also complements recent similar findings encountered in European and Asian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2007. "GARCH inadequacy for modelling exchange rates: empirical evidence from Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2529-2533.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:19:p:2529-2533
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600707316
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurosaki Tetsuo & Kim Young Shin, 2019. "Foster-Hart optimization for currency portfolios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Wild, Phillip & Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John, 2010. "Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1082-1091, September.
    3. Coronado-Ramírez, Semei L. & Porras-Serrano, Jesús & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Estructuras no lineales en mercados eficientes: el caso IBEX-35," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Economía: Teoría y Métodos, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 116-129, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    4. Phillip Wild & Melvin J. Hinich & John Foster, 2008. "The Use of Trimming to Improve the Performance of Tests for Nonlinear Serial Dependence with Application to the Australian National Electricity Market," Discussion Papers Series 367, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    5. Claudio Bonilla & Carlos Maquieira & Rafael Romero-Meza, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of emerging market bonds spreads: the Latin American case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2697-2702.
    6. Todea, Alexandru & Zoicas Ienciu, Adrian, 2011. "Technical Analysis and Stochastic Properties of Exchange Rate Movements: Empirical Evidence from the Romanian Currency Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 175-192, March.
    7. Arturo Lorenzo-Valdés & Antonio Ruiz-Porras, 2012. "Los rendimientos cambiarios latinoamericanos y la (a)simetría de los shocks informacionales: un análisis econométrico," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 87-113, November.

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