IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Modeling the co-movements between crude oil and refined petroleum markets

  • Tong, Bin
  • Wu, Chongfeng
  • Zhou, Chunyang
Registered author(s):

    In this paper we investigate two types of asymmetries, i.e., the asymmetry in the lower and upper tail dependences and the asymmetry in the propagation of crisis (bubble), between crude oil market and refined petroleum markets based on copula models. Thirteen copula models with different types of dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters are considered. We find that in general the MALM copula fits our sample data best based on AIC criterion. We find that lower and upper tail dependences are both positive indicating that crude oil and refined product markets tend to move together. Using the asymmetric copulas, we find asymmetry in tail dependence between crude oil and heating oil returns and that between crude oil and jet fuel returns. Interestingly, upper tail dependence is significantly greater than the lower tail dependence for the pre-crisis period, while the result is reversed for the post-crisis period. Finally, although our data prefers the nonexchangeable MALM copula, the asymmetry in the propagation of crisis (bubble) between crude oil and refined product returns is very weak.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 40 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 882-897

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:882-897
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    2. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
    3. CHOLLETE, Loran & HEINEN, Andréas & VALDESOGO, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling international financial returns with a multivariate regime switching copula," CORE Discussion Papers 2008013, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
    5. Ling Hu, 2006. "Dependence patterns across financial markets: a mixed copula approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 717-729.
    6. repec:dgr:uvatin:20110028 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    8. Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 689-698.
    9. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    10. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
    11. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    12. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    13. Bacon, Robert W., 1991. "Rockets and feathers: the asymmetric speed of adjustment of UK retail gasoline prices to cost changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-218, July.
    14. Chakrabarti, Rajesh & Roll, Richard, 2002. "East Asia and Europe during the 1997 Asian collapse: a clinical study of a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, January.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    16. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-83, November.
    17. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
    18. Lance J. Bachmeier & James M. Griffin, 2003. "New Evidence on Asymmetric Gasoline Price Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 772-776, August.
    19. Severin Borenstein & A. Colin Cameron, 1992. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," NBER Working Papers 4138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    21. Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
    22. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
    23. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    24. Donald Lien & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang & Chunyang Zhou, 2013. "Dynamic and Asymmetric Dependences Between Chinese Yuan and Other Asia‐Pacific Currencies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 696-723, 08.
    25. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
    27. Ning, Cathy, 2010. "Dependence structure between the equity market and the foreign exchange market-A copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 743-759, September.
    28. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    29. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Chung, Huimin & Chang, Yu-Hsien, 2012. "The economic value of co-movement between oil price and exchange rate using copula-based GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 270-282.
    30. Cathy Ning, 2009. "Extreme Dependence in International Stock Markets," Working Papers 008, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    31. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    32. Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Linear Correlation and EVT: Properties and Caveats," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, Winter.
    33. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
    34. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    35. Serra, Teresa & Gil, Jose Maria, 2012. "Biodiesel as a motor fuel price stabilization mechanism," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    36. Christian Genest & Michel Gendron & Micha�l Bourdeau-Brien, 2009. "The Advent of Copulas in Finance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 609-618.
    37. Andrew J. Patton, 2002. "On the out-of-sample importance of skewness and asymetric dependence for asset allocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24951, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    38. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011028 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    40. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Estimation of multivariate models for time series of possibly different lengths," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 147-173.
    41. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
    42. Chakrabarti, Rajesh & Roll, Richard, 2002. "East Asia and Europe During the 1997 Asian Collapse: A Clinical Study of a Financial Crisis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt09f9j331, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    43. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2008. "New Evidence of Asymmetric Dependence Structures in International Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 787-815, September.
    44. Paul Embrechts, 2009. "Copulas: A Personal View," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 639-650.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:40:y:2013:i:c:p:882-897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.