Efficient market hypothesis: is the Croatian stock market as (in)efficient as the U.S. market
Traditional statistical tests of serial independence of stock price changes often show that stock markets are inefficient. Our analysis on daily and monthly data confirms this finding for the Croatian and U.S. markets in the 2002-2010 period. However, this result seems to be mainly due to the impact of the crisis of 2008-2009. The observation of monthly data in the pre-crisis period suggests market efficiency in the U.S. and (rather surprisingly) in Croatia also. Daily data indicate a high degree of efficiency of the US stock market before the crisis, but it is impossible to conclude with a satisfying level of confidence that the Croatian market was inefficient in that period. Furthermore, an elementary moving average crossover trading system beats the CROBEX and S&P 500 indices from 1997 to 2010, indicating market inefficiency. Still, if the same trading rule is applied to the S&P 500 index in an extended time period between 1950 and 2010, the conclusion about market inefficiency becomes less convincing. It seems that (in)efficiency varies both across markets and in the same markets in the long run, but it still remains unknown which processes are the driving factors behind these changes.
Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Smiciklasova 21, 10000 Zagreb|
Web page: http://www.fintp.hr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power & D. G. S. Knipe, 2008. "The performance of moving average rules in emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(19), pages 1515-1532.
- Jean-François Nivet, 1997. "Stock markets in transition: the Warsaw experiment," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 171-183, 05.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns,"
90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
- Claessens, Stijn & Dasgupta, Susmita & Glen, Jack, 1995. "Return Behavior in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 131-51, January.
- Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Ball, Ray, 1978. "Anomalies in relationships between securities' yields and yield-surrogates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 103-126.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002.
"Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1973. "Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 436-46, June.
- Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
- Chun, Rodney M., 2000. "Compensation vouchers and equity markets: Evidence from Hungary," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1155-1178, July.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipf:finteo:v:35:y:2011:i:3:p:301-326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martina Fabris)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.