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An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Haque Mahfuzul

    (Indiana State University)

  • Hassan M. Kabir

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Maroney Neal C

    (University of New Orleans)

  • Sackley William H

    (Economics and Finance Department, University of North Carolina at Wilmington)

Abstract

This paper examines the stability, predictability, volatility, time varying risk premiums and persistence of shocks to volatility in the ten Middle Eastern and African (ME&A) emerging stock markets. Although the majority of ME&A markets only recently gained emerging status, one finds that five out of the ten ME&A emerging markets have stable returns over time. On the issue of predictability in the ME&A emerging markets, three different tests have been employed to draw conclusions. It was found that by using the three different tests, one receives slightly different results on predictability. In general, one finds ME&A markets to be unpredictable. The findings on volatility in the emerging market indicate that eight out of the ten markets show evidence of volatility clustering, but in these eight ME&A markets the shocks are not explosive. On persistence of shocks to volatility, one finds only one market to have permanent shocks; and the volatility movement affects the stock market returns. In summary, eight emerging markets have volatility clustering and one market shows positive and significant time varying risk premiums. Overall, the results fail to indicate time varying risk premium in nine of the ten ME&A markets. Although many of the emerging markets in ME&A regions are in the formative stage, it is felt that ME&A equity markets are where investors may find a good return for the investment, considering the trade-off between risk and return. In particular, the correlation is found to be low, which provides investors with the opportunity for diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Haque Mahfuzul & Hassan M. Kabir & Maroney Neal C & Sackley William H, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 18-41, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:2:y:2004:i:1:n:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2011. "Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 443-459.
    2. Brooks, Robert, 2007. "Power arch modelling of the volatility of emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 124-133, May.
    3. Eli Bouri & Andre Eid & Imad Kachacha, 2014. "The Dynamic Behaviour and Determinants of Linkages among Middle Eastern and North African Stock Exchanges," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
    5. Edib Smolo & M. Kabir Hassan, 2011. "The potentials ofmusharakah mutanaqisah for Islamic housing finance," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 237-258, August.
    6. Christos Floros, 2011. "Dynamic relationships between Middle East stock markets," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 227-236, August.
    7. Zarour Bashar Abu & Siriopoulos Costas P, 2008. "Transitory and Permanent Volatility Components: The Case of the Middle East Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 80-92, April.
    8. Cheteni, Priviledge, 2016. "Stock market volatility using GARCH models: Evidence from South Africa and China stock markets," MPRA Paper 77355, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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