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Forecast Evaluation in Call Centers: Combined Forecasts, Flexible Loss Functions and Economic Criteria

Listed author(s):
  • Andrea Bastianin

    (University of Milan-Bicocca)

  • Marzio Galeotti

    (University of Milan)

  • Matteo Manera

    (University of Milan-Bicocca)

Accurate forecasts of incoming calls are crucial to optimal staffing decisions in call centers. This paper evaluates a wide range of models and forecast combination techniques by means of statistical and economic criteria. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. In particular, the statistical evaluation of competing models is carried out by using a flexible loss function as input to pairwise and joint forecast diagnostic checks. Informative rankings across alternative single models and different groups of models are obtained. Moreover, models are evaluated from the perspective of a manager, who needs reliable forecasts to dimension the call center. Money metrics of forecasting performance are computed, which are based on the economic value of information and the certainty equivalent.

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Paper provided by Universitá degli Studi di Milano in its series UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics with number unimi-1109.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2011
Handle: RePEc:bep:unimip:unimi-1109
Note: oai:cdlib1:unimi-1109
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