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A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

  • J. M. Binner
  • R. K. Bissoondeeal
  • A. W. Mullineux

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 1257-1266

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:11:p:1257-1266
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  1. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
  2. Drake, L. & Mullineux, A., 1995. "One Divisa Money for Europe?," Discussion Papers 95-04, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  3. Elger Thomas & Binner Jane M., 2004. "The UK Household Sector Demand for Risky Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
  4. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
  5. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2002. "The European Business Cycle," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/19, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  6. Salvador Barrios & Marius Br¸lhart & Robert J.R. Elliott & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "A Tale of Two Cycles: Co-Fluctuations Between UK Regions and the Euro Zone," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 265-292, 06.
  7. Artis, M J, et al, 1995. "Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1145-64, September.
  8. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, Wenda, 1999. "Further Evidence on the International Business Cycle and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 120-32, January.
  9. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521405737 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  11. J. M. Binner & A. Fielding & A. W. Mullineux, 1999. "Divisia money in a composite leading indicator of inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1021-1031.
  12. Stracca, Livio, 2001. "Does liquidity matter? Properties of a synthetic divisia monetary aggregate in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0079, European Central Bank.
  13. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  14. A. M. Gazely & J. M. Binner, 2000. "The application of neural networks to the Divisia index debate: evidence from three countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(12), pages 1607-1615.
  15. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  16. Serletis, Apostolos, 1988. "The Empirical Relationship between Money, Prices, and Income Revisite d," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(3), pages 351-58, July.
  17. Apostolos Serletis & David Krause, 1996. "Nominal stylized facts of U. S. business cycles," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 49-54.
  18. Rina Bhattacharya & Jane Binner, 1998. "The shocking nature of output fluctuations in some EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1101-1125.
  19. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  20. Jane Binner & Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Thomas Elger & Alicia Gazely & Andrew Mullineux, 2005. "A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks: an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 665-680.
  21. Jane M. Binner & Stuart I. Wattam, 2003. "A new composite leading indicator of inflation for the UK: a Kalman filter approach," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 242-264.
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