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Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle

  • Artis, M J, et al

Inflation targeting is an important component of current U.K. economic policy and this paper examines the forecasting of inflation turning points using leading indicators. The authors identify nine complete inflation cycles between 1958 and 1993. Leading indicators are proposed, with composite shorter and longer leading indicators constructed on the basis of data to June 1992. Overall, the composite indicators give clear prior turning point information with relatively few 'false signals.' They exhibit leads at peaks which are generally longer than at troughs; correspondingly, the authors find that inflation troughs are generally more difficult to predict than peaks. Coauthors are R. C. Bladen-Hovell, Denise R. Osborn, Graham Smith, and W. Zhang. Copyright 1995 by Royal Economic Society.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 105 (1995)
Issue (Month): 432 (September)
Pages: 1145-64

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:105:y:1995:i:432:p:1145-64
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