IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/1-rt-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Kenny, Geoff

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the important linkages which may exist between the housing sector and several key macroeconomic variables. The analysis focuses on (i) the effects of rising real incomes on house prices, (ii) the impact of monetary policy, i.e. interest rates, on developments in the housing market, (iii) the nature and speed of price adjustment in the housing market, (iv) the nature and speed of supply adjustment in the housing market and (v) potential impacts of rising real house prices on real consumption. The key empirical result in the paper is the identification of two long-run relationships which capture the fundamental economic behaviour on both the demand and supply sides of the housing market. In the long-run, the demand side of the market can be modelled using a stable relationship between house prices, the housing stock, income and mortgage interest rates. It was discovered that an increase in income results in a proportional rise in the long-run demand for housing. In addition, the demand for housing responds negatively and proportionately to increases in the price of housing. Mortgage interest rates were also shown to exert a significant negative effect on the demand for housing. To model the supply side of the market, the empirical section of the paper tested the data for the existence of a stable ratio of house prices to construction costs which is consistent with "normal profits" in the house building sector. The housing stock is shown to adjust positively in order to ensure the stability of this profit ratio. Based on this characterisation of housing demand and supply, it would seem possible to explain much of the recent rise in house prices as an efficient relative price change in the presence of very sluggish supply adjustment. In addition, the model suggests that, given the short-run fixity of supply, it is reasonable to expect that house prices will overshoot their equilibrium level and then subsequently decline somewhat.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/98
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/1rt98---the-housing-market-and-the-macroeconomy-evidence-from-ireland-(kenny).pdf?sfvrsn=4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakfoort, Jacco & Matysiak, George, 1997. "Housing investment in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 501-516, October.
    2. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1996. "Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?," NBER Chapters, in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 241-272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Knudsen, Dan, 1994. "Residential investments and house prices in Denmark," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 201-214, April.
    4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Keiko Nosse Hirono, 1993. "Efficiency of the Tokyo Housing Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32, July.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-397, August.
    7. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    8. Smith, Lawrence B & Rosen, Kenneth T & Fallis, George, 1988. "Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 29-64, March.
    9. Salo, Sinikka, 1994. "Modelling the Finnish housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 250-265, April.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-143, March.
    11. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
    12. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    13. Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    15. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    16. Manchester, Joyce M. & Poterba, James M., 1989. "Second mortgages and household saving," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 325-346, May.
    17. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    18. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    19. Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
    20. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    21. Jo Corkish & David Miles, 1994. "Inflation, inflation risks and asset returns," Bank of England working papers 27, Bank of England.
    22. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    23. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    24. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
    25. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Kearney, Ide & Shortall, Fergal, 1997. "Medium-Term Review 1997-2003, No. 6," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR06, June.
    26. Artle, Roland & Varaiya, Pravin, 1978. "Life cycle consumption and homeownership," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 38-58, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Where is the housing market going in 2012?
      by brianmlucey in Brian M. Lucey on 2012-01-07 13:50:49

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D'Agostino, Antonello & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara & Foley, Daniel, 2015. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2015," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20154, June.
    3. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, January.
    4. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    5. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2008. "Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/08, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. repec:ucn:wpaper:10197/330 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 0018, European Central Bank.
    8. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
    9. Duffy, David, 2002. "A Descriptive Analysis of the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2002(2-Summer), pages 1-16.
    10. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    11. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
    12. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    13. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
    14. Morley, Ciara & Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2015. "A Review of Housing Supply Policies," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. O'Donnell, Nuala, 2007. "Housing Wealth and Consumption," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 119-136, January.
    16. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Vincent (Vincent Peter) Hogan & Patrick O'Sullivan, 2003. "Consumption and house prices in Ireland," Open Access publications 10197/330, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    18. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing Market Activity and Consumption: Macro and Micro Evidence," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Mc Quinn, Kieran, 2004. "A Model of the Irish Housing Sector," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    20. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    2. Skinner, Jonathan, 1996. "The dynamic efficiency cost of not taxing housing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 397-417, March.
    3. Muñoz, Sònia, 2004. "Real effects of regional house prices: dynamic panel estimation with heterogeneity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24704, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Visar Hoxha & Alenka Temeljotov Salaj, 2014. "Fundamental Economic Factors That Affect Housing Prices: Comparative Analysis between Kosovo and Slovenia," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 9(4), pages 323-348.
    5. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
    6. John Muellbauer & Pierre St-Amant & David Williams, 2015. "Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?," Staff Working Papers 15-40, Bank of Canada.
    7. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1994. "Housing and Saving in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Housing Markets in the United States and Japan, pages 191-214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    9. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish house prices: will the roof fall in?," Economics Department Working Paper Series n890699, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    10. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    11. Vigdor, Jacob L., 2006. "Liquidity constraints and housing prices: Theory and evidence from the VA Mortgage Program," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(8-9), pages 1579-1600, September.
    12. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2003. "Market efficiency, purchasing power parity, and the official and parallel markets for foreign currency in Latin America," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    13. Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2010. "Population Ageing and House Prices in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 43(3), pages 240-253, September.
    14. Richard Meese & Nancy Wallace, 2003. "House Price Dynamics and Market Fundamentals: The Parisian Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1027-1045, May.
    15. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    16. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    17. Gaia Garino & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Speculative Bubbles in U.K. House Prices: Some New Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 777-795, April.
    18. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    19. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
    20. Jacob L. Vigdor, 2004. "Liquidity Constraints and Housing Prices: Theory and Evidence from the VA Mortgage," NBER Working Papers 10611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:1/rt/98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.