Common trends and common cycles in regional per capita incomes
Cyclical dynamics at the regional level are investigated using newly developed times-series techniques that allow a decomposition of aggregate data into common trends and common cycles. The authors apply the common-trend/common-cycle representation to per capita personal income for the eight BEA regions using quarterly data for the period 1948:1-93:4. Their analysis reveals considerable differences in the volatility of regional cycles. Controlling for differences in volatility, the authors find a great deal of comovement in the cyclical response of four regions (New England, Mideast, Great Lakes, and Southeast), which they call the core region, and the nation. The authors find some evidence of comovement of the Plains, Rocky Mountain, and Far West regions and the nation, but to a much lesser extent than the comovement among the core regions and the nation. Finally, the cyclical response of the Southwest region is strongly negatively correlated with that of all the other regions and the nation.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/wps/index.html Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brian A. Cromwell, 1992. "Does California drive the West? an econometric investigation of regional spillovers," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 13-23.
- Carolyn Sherwood-Call, 1988. "Exploring the relationships between national and regional economic fluctuations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 15-25.
- Loungani, Prakash & Rogerson, Richard, 1989. "Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation : Evidence from the PSID," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-273, March.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1994.
"Does monetary policy have differential regional effects?,"
94-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1996. "Does monetary policy have differential regional effects?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 17-27.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995.
"Regional labor market dynamics in Europe,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1993.
"Regional income dynamics,"
93-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- W. Lee Hoskins, 1991. "Price stability and regional diversity," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
- Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
- Petersen, Bruce & Strongin, Steven, 1996. "Why Are Some Industries More Cyclical Than Others?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-98, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:96-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.