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A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment

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  • Gerald A. Carlino

Abstract

Jerry Carlino points out that the fortunes of local economies usually depend on a confluence of national, sectoral, and local shocks. That, in turn, raises the question: Does one type of shock systematically buffet local economies more than another? The answer has important implications for both academic researchers and policymakers. In "A Confluence of Events? Explaining Fluctuations in Local Employment," Carlino examines the evidence to see which type of shock most likely explains fluctuations in local employment

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:2003:i:q1:p:6-12
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    File URL: http://www.phil.frb.org/files/br/brq103jc.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
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    4. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
    5. Eswar Prasad & Alun Thomas, 1998. "A disaggregated analysis of employment growth fluctuations in Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 274-287, September.
    6. Coulson, N. Edward, 1999. "Sectoral sources of metropolitan growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 723-743, November.
    7. Theodore M. Crone, 1992. "A slow recovery in the Third District: evidence from new time-series model," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Jul, pages 3-12.
    8. Hooker, Mark A & Knetter, Michael M, 1997. "The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 400-421, August.
    9. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November.
    10. Todd E. Clark & Kwanho Shin, 1998. "The sources of fluctuations within and across countries," Research Working Paper 98-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Tamim Bayoumi & Eswar Prasad, 1997. "Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment: Some New Empirical Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 36-58, March.
    12. Clark, Todd E, 1998. "Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 202-229, January.
    13. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Argia M. Sbordone, 1997. "Sources of New York employment fluctuations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Feb, pages 21-35.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zietz, Joachim A. & Penn, David A., 2008. "An Unobserved Components Forecasting Model of Non-Farm Employment for the Nashville MSA," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 38(1).

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    Keywords

    Employment (Economic theory);

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