An Unobserved Components Forecasting Model of Non-Farm Employment for the Nashville MSA
The study demonstrates how unobserved component modeling, also known as structural time series modeling, can be usefully applied to forecast non-farm employment for the Nash-ville MSA. Short-term out-of-sample forecasts are provided for total employment and its three components: services, construction, and manufacturing. The forecasts are compared to those of a simple vector autoregression. It is shown that the suggested methodology provides very ac-curate short-term forecasts even in the absence of a full set of independent regressors. In addition, it makes it possible to back out long-term trends, which aid the forecaster in making long-term projections of sectoral employment.
Volume (Year): 38 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://jrap-journal.org/index.htm|
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gary L. Shoesmith, 2003. "Predicting National and Regional Recessions Using Probit Modeling and Interest-Rate Spreads," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 373-392.
- Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 01 Mar 1998.
- Thomas Doring & Jan Schnellenbach, 2006.
"What do we know about geographical knowledge spillovers and regional growth?: A survey of the literature,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 375-395.
- Döring, Thomas & Schnellenbach, Jan, 2004. "What Do We Know About Geographical Knowledge Spillovers and Regional Growth? A Survey of the Literature," Research Notes 14, Deutsche Bank Research.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
- Koopman, S.J.M. & Shephard, N. & Doornik, J.A., 1998. "Statistical Algorithms for Models in State Space Using SsfPack 2.2," Discussion Paper 1998-141, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
- Joachim Zietz, 1996. "The relative price of tradables and nontradables and the U.S. trade balance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-160, April.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:132344. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.