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An Unobserved Components Forecasting Model of Non-Farm Employment for the Nashville MSA

  • Zietz, Joachim A.
  • Penn, David A.

The study demonstrates how unobserved component modeling, also known as structural time series modeling, can be usefully applied to forecast non-farm employment for the Nash-ville MSA. Short-term out-of-sample forecasts are provided for total employment and its three components: services, construction, and manufacturing. The forecasts are compared to those of a simple vector autoregression. It is shown that the suggested methodology provides very ac-curate short-term forecasts even in the absence of a full set of independent regressors. In addition, it makes it possible to back out long-term trends, which aid the forecaster in making long-term projections of sectoral employment.

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Article provided by Mid-Continent Regional Science Association in its journal Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy.

Volume (Year): 38 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()

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Handle: RePEc:ags:jrapmc:132344
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  1. Döring, Thomas & Schnellenbach, Jan, 2004. "What Do We Know About Geographical Knowledge Spillovers and Regional Growth? A Survey of the Literature," Research Notes 14, Deutsche Bank Research.
  2. Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, July.
  4. Gerald A. Carlino, 2003. "A confluence of events? explaining fluctuations in local employment," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q1, pages 6-12.
  5. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  6. Joachim Zietz, 1996. "The relative price of tradables and nontradables and the U.S. trade balance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 147-160, April.
  7. Gary L. Shoesmith, 2003. "Predicting National and Regional Recessions Using Probit Modeling and Interest-Rate Spreads," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 373-392.
  8. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
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