IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Dollar depreciations and monthly local employment in three Midwestern states: Evidence from time-series and cointegration analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Scott W Hegerty


    (Northeastern Illinois University)

As local exports grow globally, it is important for policymakers to understand the role that exchange rates play on local employment. Using current data, this study first examines business-cycle concordance and synchronization and finds that there is relatively weak correlation between local employment either with cities' small neighbors or their states' major metropolis. There are, however, stronger connections to the dollar real effective exchange rate. When we apply Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares in a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions framework to a reduced-form model, we find that most cities, including the major metro areas, do indeed see increased employment following a dollar depreciation. Those cities that do not experience these effects have employment mixes that rely less on manufacturing. These include state capitals, medical centers, and university hubs. Only the results for a trio of medium-sized manufacturing cities in Wisconsin are more difficult to explain, suggesting that further research is necessary.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 35 (2015)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 291-297

in new window

Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00615
Contact details of provider:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

in new window

  1. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2013. "Discordant city employment cycles," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 367-384.
  2. Carlino, Gerald & Cody, Brian & Voith, Richard, 1990. "Regional impacts of exchange rate movements," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 20(1).
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, November.
  4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  5. Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "Central European Business Cycles," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 56-73, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-14-00615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.