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Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Reynolds

    (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission)

  • Leopold Sögner

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna
    Vienna Graduate School of Finance
    NYU Abu Dhabi)

  • Martin Wagner

    (Department of Economics, University of Klagenfurt
    Bank of Slovenia
    Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

This paper applies recently developed procedures to monitor and date so-called “financial market dislocations”, defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we use a cointegration perspective to focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate triplets. Due to increasing attention on and importance of mispricing in the market for cryptocurrencies, we include the cryptocurrency Bitcoin in addition to fiat currencies in our analysis. We do not find evidence for substantial deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity when only traditional fiat currencies are considered, but document significant deviations from triangular arbitrage parities in the newer market for Bitcoin. We tentatively confirm the importance of our results for portfolio strategies by showing that a currency portfolio that trades based on our detected break-points outperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Reynolds & Leopold Sögner & Martin Wagner, 2021. "Deviations from Triangular Arbitrage Parity in Foreign Exchange and Bitcoin Markets," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 105-146, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:105-146
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    Cited by:

    1. Pietro Saggese & Alessandro Belmonte & Nicola Dimitri & Angelo Facchini & Rainer Bohme, 2021. "Who are the arbitrageurs? Empirical evidence from Bitcoin traders in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Papers 2109.10958, arXiv.org.
    2. Saggese, Pietro & Belmonte, Alessandro & Dimitri, Nicola & Facchini, Angelo & Böhme, Rainer, 2023. "Arbitrageurs in the Bitcoin ecosystem: Evidence from user-level trading patterns in the Mt. Gox exchange platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 251-270.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    triangular arbitrage parity; foreign exchange markets; cryptocurrencies; cointegration; monitoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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